مدل‌سازی انتشار مونواکسید کربن در شهر تبریز با رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز

2 موسسه آموزش عالی غیر دولتی-غیر انتفاعی الغدیر، تبریز

3 ژوهشکده توسعه و برنامه ریزی جهاد دانشگاهی(ACECR)، تبریز

چکیده

 
در این پژوهش با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم، انتشار آلاینده مونوکسید کربن در دوره زمانی ۱۴۰۰-۱۳۹۱ شبیه‌سازی‌شده است. هدف از این مطالعه مدل‌سازی انتشار آلاینده مونوکسید کربن و ارزیابی سناریوهای مختلف جهت کاهش آلودگی هوای شهر تبریز می‌باشد. بر اساس ادبیات تحقیق متغیرهای«مصرف انرژی یا سوخت‌‌های فسیلی»، «توسعه شهر و شهرنشینی»، «حجم ترافیک»، «جمعیت شهر»، «توسعه صنعتی»، «مهاجرت» و «فضای سبز» به‌عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی مؤثر در تولید مونواکسید کربن در نظر گرفته شده‌اند. تعامل بین متغیرها به عبارت دیگر فرضیه پویا با استفاده از نمودار‌‌های علّی-حلقوی و نقشه‌های حالت-جریان نشان داده شد. سپس با کمک گرفتن از نظریه‌‌های معتبر در حوزه ادبیات مساله و دیدگاه‌های افراد خبره، روابط علّی در قالب توابع ریاضی تعریف‌شده و در نهایت اقدام به شبیه‌سازی‌شده است. بر اساس نتایج شبیه‌‌سازی، حدود 97 درصد مونوکسید کربن موجود در هوا به دلیل مصرف بنزین می‌باشد. همچنین نتایج ارزیابی سناریوها نشان داد که جایگزینی بنزین یورو چهار و کاهش نرخ معمول سفرهای ماهانه، انتشار مونواکسید کربن در شهر را به صورت قابل توجهی کاهش خواهد داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Carbon Monoxide Emission Modeling in Tabriz City Based on System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Bafandeh Zendeh 1
  • Mina Nasiri Ganjineketab 2
  • Nasser Danaye 3
1 Islamic Azad University, Tabriz,
2 Governmental and Private Higher Education Institution, Tabriz,
3 Development and planning institute (ACECR)
چکیده [English]

In this research, using system dynamics approach, carbon monoxide pollutant emission is simulated for the time period of 2012-2021. The aim of the present research study is carbon monoxide pollutant emission modeling and evaluation of various sceneries in line with air pollution decrease in Tabriz city. According to the  research literature “energy consumption (fossil fuels )”, “urban and urbanization development”, “traffic load”, “urban population”, “industrial development”, “immigration” and “green spaces” were considered as the key influential  variables in Carbon Monoxide production. The interaction among the variables (i.e. dynamic theory) was shown using causal-loop diagrams and stock-flow plots. Then, with the aid of valid theories in the field of problem literature and elites’ view in the field, causal relations were defined in the form of mathematical functions and finally they were simulated. According to the results of the simulation, about 97% of the air carbon monoxide is related to gasoline consumption. Moreover, results of the sceneries’ evaluation indicated that replacement of EURO 4 gasoline and decreasing ordinary rate of monthly travels, decrease carbon monoxide release in the city, considerably.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Air pollution
  • Carbon monoxide
  • System dynamics
  • Tabriz
  • Simulation
  • Environment
Abdulkareem, A.S. 2005. Urban Air Pollution Evaluation by Computer Simulation: A Case Study of Petroleum Refining Company Nigeria, Leonardo Journal of Sciences, ISSN 1583-0233, p. 17-28.
Alam, S.; Fatima, A.; Butt. 2007. Sustainable Development in Pakistan in the Context of Energy Consumption Dem& & Environmental Degradation", Journal of Asian Economics, 18, pp. 825 - 837.
Bayat, R. 2004. Contribution of Tehran Air Pollution Production Resources, Master of Science in Environmental Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Guidance by Ayoub Turkian, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology. [in Persian].
Behboudi, D.; Asgharpur, H.; Fallahi, F. & Mohammadi Khaneghahi, R. 2014. Impacts of financial & economic developments on greenhouse gas emission in selected OPEC countries: A panel cointegration & dynamic ordinary least squares approch, Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 49(2), pp. 315-335. doi: 10.22059/jte.2014.51796. [in Persian].
Chakraborty, N.; Mukherjee, I.; Santra, A.K.; Chowdhury, S.; Chakraborty, S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Mitra, A.P. & Sharma, C., 2008, Measurement of CO2, CO, SO2, & NO emissions from coal-based thermal power plants in India, Atmospheric Environment, 42, 1073–1082.
Chen, Z.H.; Cheng, S.Y.; Li, J. B.; Guo. X.R.; Wang, W.H. & Chen, D. S. 2008. Relationship between atmospheric pollution processes & synoptic pressure patterns in northern China, Atmospheric Environment
Demuzere, M. & Lipzig, N. 2010. A new method to estimate air-quality levels using a synoptic-regression approach. Part I: Present-day O3 & PM10 analysis, Atmospheric Environment 44, pp 1341– 1355.
Fatihifar, E. & Kahrifooshan, D. 2012. Tabriz Contaminant Emissions List Compilation Plan, East Azarbaijan Environmental Administration Publication. [in Persian].
Fotros, M.; Ghaffari, H. & Shahbazi, A. 2011. Relationships between Co2 Emissions & Economic Growth: the Case of OPEC, Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth & Development Research, 1(1), pp. 77-59. [in Persian].
General Census of Population & Housing. 2016. Iran Census Center, Available in August 1396, https://www.amar.org.ir. [in Persian].
Ghaffarzadegan, N.; Lyneis, J. & Richardson, G.P. 2011. How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 27, 22–44.
Gorbani, R.; Hosseinzadeh Delir, K. & Shorkri Firoozjah, P. 2012. The Study Tabriz City Air Pollution Condition on the Basis of Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Geography & Planning, 16(39), pp. 89-108. [in Persian].
Goyal, S.V. 2005. Underst&ing Urban Vehicular Pollution Problem Vis- A –Vis. 42, pp 6078– 6087.
Hemmati, R.; Saboori, H. & Ahmadi Jirdehi, M. 2016. Multistage generation expansion planning incorporating large scale energy storage systems & environmental pollution, Renewable Energy, 97, 636-645.
Jones, D. W. 1991. How Urbanization Affects Energy-use in Developing Countries, Energy Policy, 19(7), pp. 621–630.
Khoshbin, S. & Rahimi, A. D. 2005. Population Guide, Ministry of Health & Medical Education Publications, Winter, pp. 19-20 & 32. [in Persian].
Liu, Y. 2009. Exploring the Relationship between Urbanization & Energy Consumption in China, Using ARDL & FDM, Energy, 34, pp. 1846-1854.
Manasakunkit, C. & Chinda, T. 2013. The development of a basic dynamic model of household waste recycling. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Engineering, Project, & Production Management (EPPM).
Moharramnejad, N. & Ejtihadi, M. 2010. Revision of the Greater Tehran Air Pollution Control Plan & the Progress of Plan Axes, Journal of Development & Change, Climate, No. 2. [in Persian].
Mukherjee, J.; Ray, S. & Ghosh, P.B. 2013. A system dynamic modeling of carbon cycle from mangrove litter to the adjacent Hooghly estuary. India. Ecol. Model. 252, 185–195.
Nasrollahi, Z. & Ghaffari Gulak, M. 2010. Air Pollution & its determinants (The Case Study of SPM, & SO2 Emissions in Iran Manufacturing Industries). QJER. 2010; 10 (3) :75-95 [in Persian].
Neumayer, E. & Cole, M. 2004. Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution", Population & Environment, vol. 26(1), pp.5-21.
Performance Report of Tabriz Metropolitan Air Pollution Reduction Working Group. 2011. East Azerbaijan Province Environmental Protection Agency, p. 3. [in Persian].
Regulation (EC) No 715/2007", The European Parliament & the Council of the European Union. 2007-06-20. pp. 5–9. Retrieved 2015-10-29.
Sadeghi, K. & Ebrahimi, S. 2013. Impact of Coal Consumption on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran, Iranian Energy Economics, 2(7), pp. 43-73. [in Persian].
Sadrsky, P. 2010. The impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies, Energy Policy, 38, 2528-2535.
Sadrsky, P. 2011. Financial development & energy consumption in central & eastern European frontier economies, Energy Policy, 39, 99-100.
Safavi, S.Y. & Alijani, B. 2006. Investigation of Geographical Factors in Tehran Air Pollution,. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH QUARTERLY, 38(6). [in Persian].
Shahbaz, M.; Islam, F., & Sabihuddin, M. 2011. Financial development, energy consumption & CO2 emissions: evidence from ARDL approch for Pakistan. MPRA paper, 30138.
Shariepour, Z. 2009. Seasonal & daily variation of air pollutants & their relation to meteorological parameters, Journal of the Earth & Space Physics, 35(2), pp. 137-119. [in Persian].
Shoar, K. & Javadi, A. 2006. Interaction of Urban Transport Policies & L& Development & Development, 7th Iranian Conference on Transport & Traffic Engineering, Tehran, Tehran Transport & Traffic Organization, Deputy of Transport & Municipal Traffic Tehran. [in Persian].
Shokri, P. 2012. 'aa', Journal of Urban Ecology Researches, 2(3), pp. 75-82. [in Persian].
Statistics of National Oil & Gas Distribution Company of East Azerbaijan Province, 2013. [in Persian].
Statistics of Tabriz Transportation & Traffic Organization. 2013. Website of Scientific Information Center of Transport & Traffic Specialty, www.ttic.ir. [in Persian].
Sterman, John D. 2000. Business dynamics: systems thinking & modeling for a complex world.
Sumari, S.; Ibrahim, R.; Zakaria, N.H. & Hamid, A.H.A. 2013. Comparing three simulation model using taxonomy: system dynamic simulation, discrete event simulation & agent based simulation. Int. J. Manag. Excell. 1, 54–59.
Zarabi, A.; Mahamadi, J. & Abdollahi, A. A. 2010. Investigation & Evaluation of Fixed & Moving Sources in Isfahan Air Pollution, Geography, Geographical Society of Iran, 8 (26), 151- 164.