مدل‌سازی انتشار مونواکسید کربن در شهر تبریز با رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز

2 موسسه آموزش عالی غیر دولتی-غیر انتفاعی الغدیر، تبریز

3 ژوهشکده توسعه و برنامه ریزی جهاد دانشگاهی(ACECR)، تبریز

چکیده

 
در این پژوهش با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم، انتشار آلاینده مونوکسید کربن در دوره زمانی ۱۴۰۰-۱۳۹۱ شبیه‌سازی‌شده است. هدف از این مطالعه مدل‌سازی انتشار آلاینده مونوکسید کربن و ارزیابی سناریوهای مختلف جهت کاهش آلودگی هوای شهر تبریز می‌باشد. بر اساس ادبیات تحقیق متغیرهای«مصرف انرژی یا سوخت‌‌های فسیلی»، «توسعه شهر و شهرنشینی»، «حجم ترافیک»، «جمعیت شهر»، «توسعه صنعتی»، «مهاجرت» و «فضای سبز» به‌عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی مؤثر در تولید مونواکسید کربن در نظر گرفته شده‌اند. تعامل بین متغیرها به عبارت دیگر فرضیه پویا با استفاده از نمودار‌‌های علّی-حلقوی و نقشه‌های حالت-جریان نشان داده شد. سپس با کمک گرفتن از نظریه‌‌های معتبر در حوزه ادبیات مساله و دیدگاه‌های افراد خبره، روابط علّی در قالب توابع ریاضی تعریف‌شده و در نهایت اقدام به شبیه‌سازی‌شده است. بر اساس نتایج شبیه‌‌سازی، حدود 97 درصد مونوکسید کربن موجود در هوا به دلیل مصرف بنزین می‌باشد. همچنین نتایج ارزیابی سناریوها نشان داد که جایگزینی بنزین یورو چهار و کاهش نرخ معمول سفرهای ماهانه، انتشار مونواکسید کربن در شهر را به صورت قابل توجهی کاهش خواهد داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Carbon Monoxide Emission Modeling in Tabriz City Based on System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Bafandeh Zendeh 1
  • Mina Nasiri Ganjineketab 2
  • Nasser Danaye 3
1 Islamic Azad University, Tabriz,
2 Governmental and Private Higher Education Institution, Tabriz,
3 Development and planning institute (ACECR)
چکیده [English]

In this research, using system dynamics approach, carbon monoxide pollutant emission is simulated for the time period of 2012-2021. The aim of the present research study is carbon monoxide pollutant emission modeling and evaluation of various sceneries in line with air pollution decrease in Tabriz city. According to the  research literature “energy consumption (fossil fuels )”, “urban and urbanization development”, “traffic load”, “urban population”, “industrial development”, “immigration” and “green spaces” were considered as the key influential  variables in Carbon Monoxide production. The interaction among the variables (i.e. dynamic theory) was shown using causal-loop diagrams and stock-flow plots. Then, with the aid of valid theories in the field of problem literature and elites’ view in the field, causal relations were defined in the form of mathematical functions and finally they were simulated. According to the results of the simulation, about 97% of the air carbon monoxide is related to gasoline consumption. Moreover, results of the sceneries’ evaluation indicated that replacement of EURO 4 gasoline and decreasing ordinary rate of monthly travels, decrease carbon monoxide release in the city, considerably.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Air pollution
  • Carbon monoxide
  • system dynamics
  • Tabriz
  • Simulation
  • Environment
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