تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر مهاجرت روستاییان در ایران: کاربرد رویکرد Panel VAR

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

نگرش انسان به اقلیم و تغییرات آن، به چالشی بزرگ در درک فعل و انفعالات اقلیم و جامعه تبدیل شده و توجه به مطالعات سازگاری انسان با تغییر اقلیم را افزایش داده است. هرچند رابطه بین تغییر اقلیم و کشاورزی به خوبی اثبات شده است اما بررسی رابطه آنها با مهاجرت هنوز ضعیف است. مهاجرت از روستا‌‌ها یکی از راهبرد‌های متداول مقابله با اثرات ناشی از تغییر اقلیم است و خالی از سکنه شدن تعداد زیادی از روستا‌های ایران طی خشکسالی‌‌‌های پی در پی در چند دهه اخیر یکی از شواهد موجود در این امر است. در مطالعه حاضر تلاش شد که با تکنیک اقتصادسنجی Panel VAR و داده‌های سال‌‌های 92-1381 استان‌‌‌های ایران رابطه بین متغیر‌های اقلیمی شامل ‌می‌انگین دما، بارش سالانه و متغیر اقتصادی ارزش افزوده با مهاجرت روستایی بررسی شود. نتایج حاکی از اثر معنادار تما‌می‌ متغیرها بر مهاجرت است. مطابق با انتظار، همراه با کاهش بارندگی و بروز خشکسالی، مهاجرت روستایی افزایش ‌می‌‌‌یابد. از طرف دیگر، افزایش ‌می‌انگین دمای سالانه و گرم شدن زمین، با توجه به اثر منفی آن بر عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی، افزایش مهاجرت را در پی دارد. عوامل اقلیمی، اثرات مشابهی بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی دارند. همچنین، ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی رابطه منفی با مهاجرت دارد. نتایج تجزیه واریانس نشان داد که بیش از70 درصد از تغییرات مهاجرت روستایی توسط متغیر‌های اقلیمی، 24 درصد توسط خود مهاجرت و 4 درصد توسط ارزش افزوده کشاورزی توضیح داده می‌شود. بنابراین، به خوبی ‌می‌‌‌توان استنتاج کرد که تغییر اقلیم عامل بسیار اثرگذار بر مهاجرت روستایی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Climate Change on Rural Migration in Iran: Application of Panel VAR Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Dorna Jahangirpour
  • Mohammad Bakhshoodeh
Shiraz university
چکیده [English]

Migration from the countryside is one of the most common strategies against the climate change and abandoning a large number of villages in Iran during sequential droughts in recent decades is among the available evidences. In this context, we attempt to examine the relationships between climate variables including mean temperature, annual precipitation, agriculture added value and rural migration applying Panel VAR approach to the data of Iranian provinces over the time period of 2002-2013. The results showed significant effects of all variables on rural migration. In accordance with expectations, rural migration increases as result of low precipitation and drought. On the other hand, the mean annual temperature and global warming, due to its negative effect on yields of agricultural products, increases migration. The effects of climate variables on added value of agriculture sector are similar to those on migration. Moreover, the added value of agricultural sector is negatively related to migration. The variance decomposition analysis showed that more than 72 percent of rural migration variation is explained by climate variables, 24 percent by itself and 4 percent by the added value. Therefore, it is well concluded that climate change is a main factor affecting rural migration.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Rural Migration
  • Vector Auto Regressive
  • panel data
  • Iran JEL: C01
  • Q56
  • Q54
  • O15
  • R23
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