تاثیر رشد اقتصادی، جمعیت، مصرف انرژی و تجارت بر کیفیت محیط‌زیست درکشورهای منطقه منا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه لرستان

2 دانشگاه علوم و تحقیقات، اهواز

چکیده

طی دهه‌های اخیر، نگرانی در مورد گرم شدن کره زمین در نتیجه انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای، افزایش‌یافته است. بر این اساس شناسایی عوامل موثر بر انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار می‌باشد. در این راستا، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی هم‌زمان رابطه‌های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بین رشد اقتصادی، جمعیت، مصرف انرژی و تجارت با میزان انتشار گاز CO2 (به‌عنوان شاخص کیفیت محیط‌زیست) در کشورهای منطقه منا با استفاده از داده‌های دوره‌ی زمانی 2013-1990 است. به این منظور، نخست مدل پژوهش تصریح و پس از انجام آزمون‌های معمول ریشه واحد و هم‌انباشتگی در داده‌های ترکیبی، به‎منظور برآورد ضرایب کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت از روش میانگین گروهی تلفیقی (PMG) استفاده شده است. نتایج، نشان‌دهنده تاثیر مثبت رشد اقتصادی (درآمد سرانه) بر انتشار گاز CO2 در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت برای کشورهای منطقه منا است؛ که نشان می‌دهد این کشورها در قسمت صعودی منحنی کوزنتس قرار دارند. هم‌چنین اثر جمعیت، مصرف انرژی و تجارت روی آلودگی هوا در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت در کشورهای منطقه منا مثبت است؛ به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک‌درصدی در متغیرهای جمعیت، مصرف انرژی و تجارت، میزان انتشار گاز CO2 در بلندمدت به‌ترتیب 36/0، 88/0 و 15/0 درصد و در کوتاه‌مدت به‌ترتیب 16/0، 52/0 و 07/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. بنابراین می‌توان گفت که در کشورهای منطقه منا، افزایش رشد اقتصادی، جمعیت، مصرف انرژی و تجارت، افزایش میزان انتشار گاز CO2 را به‌همراه خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Economic Growth, Population, Energy Consumption and Trade on Environmental Quality in MENA Region Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolghasem Golkhandan 1
  • Fatemeh Moazemi Nejhad 2
1 Lorestan University
2 Science and Research University, Ahvaz
چکیده [English]

In recent decades, concern about global warming as a result of rising greenhouse gas emissions has increased. Accordingly, the identification of factors affecting the emission of greenhouse gases is important. In this regard, the main objective of this study is to investigate concurrent the short and long term relationships between economic growth, population, energy consumption, and trade with the CO2 emissions (as an indicator of environmental quality index) in the MENA region, using data from the 1990-2013 period. For this purpose, firstly, the research model has been specified and after doing usual panel unit root and co-integration tests in panel data, to estimation short and long term coefficients has been used pooled mean group method (PMG). The results indicate a positive impact of economic growth (per capita income) on the CO2 emissions for MENA countries in the long-term and short-term, indicating that these countries are on the upward side of the Kuznets curve. Also, the effect of population, energy consumption and trade on air pollution is positive in the short and long term in the MENA region countries; So that, with a one-percent increase in population, energy consumption and trade variables, CO2 emissions increase in the long-term by 0.36, 0.88 and 0.15 percent respectively, and in the short run by 0.16, 0.52 and 0.07 percent respectively. So can say that in these countries, economic growth, population, energy consumption and trade, causes the CO2 emissions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Per capita income
  • population
  • energy consumption
  • Trade
  • Air pollution
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