پیش‌بینی دما و بارش با استفاده از سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم و مدل‌های ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری (مطالعه موردی: جنوب استان کرمان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه جیرفت، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه احیا مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه تغییر اقلیم یکی از چالش‌های مهم محیط‌زیستی در قرن 21 شناخته می‌شود گرمایش زمین هم‌زمان با کاهش در میزان بارش اثرات تغییر اقلیم را شدیدتر کرده است. در همین راستا با استفاده از مدل‌های ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری و سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم (A2 و B2) به ‌پیش‌بینی پارامترهای دما و بارش در منطقه جنوب استان کرمان پرداخته ‌شده است. نتایج نشان داد که مقادیر بارش در دوره آتی نسبت به حالت پایه در ایستگاه سینوپتیک بم به میزان 32/7 و 46/8 میلی ‌‌متر به ترتیب در سناریو A2 و سناریو B2 افزایش می‌یابد از طرفی در ایستگاه سینوپتیک جیرفت متوسط دمای فصل ‌‌ها در سناریوی A2 (79/24، 88/8، 38/17- و 48/5-)درصد افزایش دما در فصل بهار و تابستان و کاهش دما در فصل پاییز و زمستان هست و این مقادیر در سناریو B2 به ترتیب (41/26، 10/8، 65/16- و 27/6-) درصد افزایش دما در فصل بهار و تابستان و کاهش دما در فصل پاییز و زمستان است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Using Climate Change Scenarios and Statistical Exponential Downscaling Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farshad Soleimani Sardoo 1
  • Tayebeh Mesbahzadeh 2
1 Assist. Profe. Department of Ecological Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Jiroft University, Iran
2 Assoc. Profe. Department of Reclamation of Dry and Mountainou Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change is now recognized as one of the key environmental challenges of the 21st century. Earth warming has been heightened by global warming along with falling rainfall. In this regard, by using statistical exponential downscaling models and climate change scenarios (A2 and B2), prediction of temperature and precipitation parameters in the southern region of Kerman province has been investigated. The results showed that the precipitation values ​​in the future period compared to baseline at Bam synoptic station increased by 7.32 and 8.46 mm, respectively, in scenario A2 and scenario B2. Also, the results showed that precipitation values ​​in the upcoming period compared to baseline at Bam synoptic station increased by 7.32 and 8.46 mm, respectively, in scenario A2 and scenario B2. On the other hand, at the synoptic station of Jiroft, the average season temperatures were in the scenario A2 (24.79, 8.88, 17.38, and -48.5), the temperature increase in the spring and summer and the decrease in the temperature in the fall and in winter, the values in the scenario B2 are (26.41, 10.8, 16.65, and 6.27), respectively, in the spring and summer and the fall in winter and autumn.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • SDSM model
  • Temperature increase
  • Rainfall reduction
  • South of Kerman province
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