تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر فقر منتخبی از کشورهای خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه اردکان، یزد، ایران

10.22034/eiap.2022.158586

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی یکی از اصلی‌‌ترین و مهم‌‌ترین عوامل گذار بر ویژگی‌‌های اکوسیستم محسوب می‌شود. تغییر اقلیم ناشی از افزایش گازهای گلخانه‌‌ای تحت تاثیر فعالیت‌‌های انسان و صنعتی شدن کشورها است که منجر به افزایش دمای کره زمین و وقوع بلاهای طبیعی مانند سیل و خشکسالی شده و پیامدهایی چون مهاجرت، گرسنگی، فقر و غیره را به همراه دارد و به صورت غیرمستقیم بر اقتصاد، اجتماع و کشاورزی تاثیرگذار است. تغییرات اقلیمی بر محیط‌‌زیست مانعی برای کاهش فقر و توسعه اقتصادی پایدار است. در این میان، ارزیابی چگونگی تغییرات اقلیمی بر کاهش فقر از اهمیت ویژه‌‌ای برخوردار است. از این‌‌رو، پژوهش حاضر به ارزیابی تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر فقرِ منتخبی از کشورهای خاورمیانه از جمله ایران در بازه زمانی (2015-2000) می‌‌پردازد. روش اثرات ثابت پانل برای برآورد مدل‌‌های فقر(سوء تغذیه و نرخ مرگ و میر نوزادان) به کار گرفته شد. یافته‌‌های پژوهش بیانگر اثر منفی متغیرهای درصد تغییر مساحت جنگل‌‌ها، بهبود دسترسی به بهداشت، برق، منابع آب سالم و شاخص تولید غذا بر شاخص‌‌های فقر و اثر مثبت انتشار گاز گاخانه‌‌ای دی اکسید کربن بر متغیر سوء تغذیه است. با توجه به نتایج می‌‌بایست تصمیمات مدیریتی ویژه برای بهبود دسترسی به آب سالم به خصوص در مناطق روستایی، برق و بهداشت در نظر گرفته شود و از طرفی نیز با حفاظت از مناطق جنگلی سعی در کاهش بهره‌‌برداری بی‌‌رویه و تخریب این منابع عظیم خدادادی شود. هم‌‌چنین لازم است اقدامات و سیاست‌‌های کاهش فقر با توجه به شرایط اقتصادی- اجتماعی کشورها و شرایط اقلیمی انجام شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Climate Change on Poverty in Selected of Middle Eastern Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • fateme sakhi 1
  • Ahmad Fatahi ardakani 2
1 PhD Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Tehran University, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Ardakan, Yazd, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change is one of the main and most important factors affecting ecosystem characteristics. The climate change caused by the increase of greenhouse gases is influenced by human activities and industrialization of countries, which leads to increased global warming and natural disasters such as floods and droughts, and the consequences of migration, hunger, poverty, etc., and Indirectly affecting the economy, society and agriculture. Climate change is an obstacle to poverty reduction and sustainable economic development. In this context, assessing how climate change is important in reducing poverty. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on selected poverty from Middle Eastern countries, including Iran in the period (2000-2015). Panel fixed effect model to estimate poverty (malnutrition and infant mortality rates) were selected. The findings of the study indicate the negative effect of variables such as percentage change in forest area, improving access to health, electricity, healthy water sources and food production index on poverty indicators and the positive effect of carbon dioxide emissions on the variables of malnutrition. According to the results, special managerial decisions should be made to improve access to safe water, especially in rural areas, electricity and sanitation, and, on the other hand, by protecting forest areas, attempts to reduce unnecessary exploitation and destruction of these resources. It is also necessary to take measures and policies to reduce poverty, taking into account the socio-economic conditions of countries and the climate.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Change
  • Middle East
  • Mortality rate
  • Malnutrition
  • Poverty

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پژوهش های محیط زیست
دوره 13، شماره 25
مجله پژوهشی
شهریور 1401
صفحه 183-198

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