Economic and Demographic Determinants of Sustainability of the Environmental Performance Index: Case Study of Middle East and North Africa

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 PhD Student in Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/eiap.2022.158592

Abstract

Environmental Performance Index (EPI) is calculated based on 22 environmental indicators such as water resources, air pollution, biodiversity and climate change. The index quantitatively measures and evaluates the performance of policies and programs of countries aimed at reducing environmental issues as well as protecting and managing the environment and natural resources. This paper aims at examining the status of the EPI’s dimensions, exploring the causes of its fluctuations and identifying the determinants of its sustainability. The paper uses secondary data. The EPI has been derived from the Yale University’s website and the macro-economic and demographic variables have been extracted from the World Bank’s website for the period 2010 to 2018. The data have been analyzed using the event history analysis. The findings suggest that the probability of the sustainability of the EPI is o.45 in the countries under study. Further, after adjusting for other variables, the EPI has a positive relationship with life expectancy at birth and a negative relationship with variables such as urbanization and population growth rates. Moreover, the impact of demographic variables is greater than economic variables in Middle East and North Africa, which highlights the need for policymakers to focus on demographic factors when designing and implementing polices aimed at the sustainability of the EPI.

Keywords


Abbas, S. A.; Subramanian, S.; Ravi, P.; Ramamoorthy, S. & Munikrishnan, V. 2019. An Introduction to Survival Analytics, Types, and Its Applications. In Biomechanics. IntechOpen, 80953.
Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J.; Pourasghar-Sangachin, F. & Razeghi Nasrabad, R. S. 2017. “Population Developments and Situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Population and Environment, National Institute for Population Research (NIPR), May 2017. (In Persian)
Ahmadi, H. & Dehghani, R. 2015. The Opinions and Thoughts of Elric Beck (Theorist of Risk Society), Social Development, Volume 10, Number 2 - Serial Number 38, pp. 101-126. (In Persion)
Alam, M.; Murad, W.; Noman, A.H. & Ozturk, I. 2015. Relationships among carbon emissions, economic growth, energy consumption and population growth: Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Brazil, China, India and Indonesia, Ecological Indicators, Vol.70, pp.446-479.
Aminata, L. W. & Pillai, V.K. 2014. International Review of Modern Sociology, International Journals, Vol. 40, No. 2, Autumn 2014.
Asiki, A. A. 2012. Economic Growth and its Impact on Environment: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Ecological Indicators, 24, 324-333.
Blossfeld, H-P.; Golsch, K. &Rohwer, G. 2007. Event History Analysis with Stata, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Bradshaw, C.J. &Di Minin, E., 2019. Socio-economic predictors of environmental performance among African nations, Scientific reports, 9(1), pp.1-13.
Cleves, A.; Gutierrez, R.G.; Gould, W. &Marchenko, Y.V. 2010. An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Statae, Texas: Stata Press. Third edition.
Cox, D.R. 1972. Regression models and life tables (with discussion). J R Statist Soc B 34: 187–220.
Garavandi, Sh.; Papzan, A. &Afsharzadeh, N. 2010. Sustainable Development Modeling Using Fundamental Theory, Case Study: Shurineh Village of Javanrood, Housing and Village Journal, No. 136. Pp. 67-79. (In Persian)
Ghasemi, M, A. 2009. Risk Society and its Importance for Strategic Studies, Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies, Year 12. No. 45. pp. 27-46. (In Persian)
Ghazi, I. &Molaee, A. 2016. Environmental Instability in the Middle East and the Challenges of Management and Cultural Policy: A Comparative Study of Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Year 12, Issue 37, Winter 2016, pp. 121-144. (In Persian)
Godschalk, D.R. 1975. Carrying capacity: a key to environmental planning?, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 30(4), pp.160-165.
Griffin, C. &Bone, J.E. 2016. Invitation to Human Communication-National Geographic,. Cengage Learning.
Hill, C. W. L. &Jones, G. R. 2012. Strategic management essentials (3rd ed.), Mason, Ohio: South-Western.
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT, 2019. Beyond income, beyond averages, beyond today: Inequalities in human development in the 21st century.
Lane, M. 2010. The carrying capacity imperative: Assessing regional carrying capacity methodologies for sustainable land-use planning, Land Use Policy, Vol 27:1038-1045.
Lotfi, H. & Lotfi, F. 2016. The Impact of Gross National Product on Sustainable Development, Fourth National Conference on Sustainable Development in Geography and Planning, Architecture and Urban Planning, Tehran, Mehr Arvand Higher Institute. (In Persian)
Malthus, T. R. (1888 [First Edition: 1798]). An essay on the principle of population: or, A view of its past and present effects on human happiness, Reeves.
Manisalidis, I.; Stavropoulou, E.; Stavropoulos, A. &Bezirtzoglou, E. 2020. Environmental and health impacts of air pollution: a review, Frontiers in public health, 8, p.14.
Masindi, V. &Muedi, K.L. 2018. Environmental contamination by heavy metals, Heavy metals, 10, pp.115-132.
Mir A.; Fotouhi, M. &Yaghoubi, K. 2006. Investigation of the effects of migration on the metropolitan environment of Tehran, Iranian Association of Environmental Specialists, 2006, Volume 6. pp 1-22. (In Persian)
Mirzaei, M.; Sadeghi, R.; Jafarzadeh-Haghighifard, N. & Sadeghi, H. A. 2020. The effect of air pollution on Morbidity in Ahvaz in 2016, Journal of Association Population of Iran, 15 (29), pp. 61-94, doi: 10.22034 / jpai.2020.243918. (In Persian)
Mohajerani, A. 2007. The effect of population growth on environmental degradation, Fourth Conference of the Iranian Demographic Association, Asia-Pacific Center for Demographic Studies and Research Publications, March 5-17, 2007. (In Persian)
Muradian, R. & Martinez-Alier, J. 2001. Trade and The Environment: From A Southern’s Perspective, Journal of Ecological Economics, 36(2), 281–297.
Pinar, M. 2022. Sensitivity of environmental performance index based on stochastic dominance, Journal of Environmental Management, 310, 114767.
Prato, T. 2009. Fuzzy adaptive management of social and ecological carrying capacities for protected areas, Journal of Environmental Management, Vol90:2551-2557.
Razavi, H. R. 2017. A Study of Demographic and Economic Factors Affecting Environmental Performance, M.Sc. Thesis, University of Tehran, Demography. (In Persian)
Rees, W.E. &Wachernagel, M. 1996. Urban Ecological Footprints: Why Cities Cannot be Sustainable-And Why They are A Key to Sustainability, Environ Impact Assess Rev, Vol 16:223-248.
Riahi Vafa, A. 2005. Population, Environmental and Air Pollution, Population Quarterly, 13th year, No. 53 and 54. (In Persian)
Sadeghi, H.A. 2018. Investigating the Role of Balance of Population and Economic Growth in Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth (Case Study: Upper-Middle Income Countries during 1985 to 2016), International Journal of Applied Research in Management and Economics, 1(2), pp.1-8.
Schroll, H. &Ansersen, J. 2012. Carrying Capacity: An Approach to Local Spatial Planning in Indonesia, The Journal of Tran disciplinary Environmental Studies. Vol 11(1), 27-39.
Soltani, Z.; Abbasi Shavazi, M. J.; Bagheri, A. & Kooshshi, M. 2019. The Effect of Demographic Variables on the Estimation of Agricultural Water Consumption in Iran (2007-2014), Journal of Population Association of Iran, Volume:14 Issue: 28, 2020, PP 171 -204. (In Persian)
Środowiska, R. O. 2016. Measuring of Environmental Performance Index in Europe, Annual Set the Environment Protection, Volume/Tom 18. Year/Rok 2016.
Tavakoli Kazerooni, A. & Feshari, M. 2010. The Impact of Exports on Iran's Environment, Business Research Journal, summer 2010, Volume 14, Number 55. pp. 183-212. (In Persian)
Turner, B.S. 2006. The cambridge dictionary of sociology, Cambridge University Press.
Vlaei, E. 2005. Model of Nature Behavior (Environment) from the Qur'an and Sonnat, Ph.D. in Quran and Hadiths, Azad University of Science and Research. (In Persian)
Wang, C.; Ghadimi, P.; Lim, M.K. &Tseng, M.L. 2019. A literature review of sustainable consumption and production: A comparative analysis in developed and developing economies. Journal of Cleaner Production, 206, pp.741-754.
Wicks, J. 2016. Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Topics, Translated by Elahe Mirzaei, National Institute for Population Research (NIPR), Tehran, Iran. (In Persian)
World Bank Data, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018. Available from: https://www.worldbank.org/
Xu, L. & Xie, X. 2012. Theoretic Research on the Relevant Concepts of Urban Ecosystem Carrying Capacity, The 18th Biennial Conference of the International Society for Ecological Modeling, Vol 13:863-872.
Yale Data: Global Metrics for the Environment, The Environmental Performance Index ranks countries’ performance on high priority (2002-2018).
Yale Data; environment performance index (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020). Available from https://epi.yale.edu.
Zarandi, S. & Bebran, S. 2008. Strategies of the Environmental Sector to Achieve the Goals of the Twenty-Year Vision Document, Strategy Quarterly, No. 48. pp. 101-122. (In Persian)
Zebardast, E. 2008. City Size, Urban Planning and Architecture Research Center: Tehran. (In Persian)
Zobeidi, T. & Ajili, A. 2014. The effects of agriculture on the environment, The second national conference on agriculture and sustainable resources, Tehran, Mehr Arvand Institute of Higher Education. (In Persian)