Predicting the Impact of Using Euro 5 Gasoline on Air Pollution Levels in the City of Shiraz

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Larestan, Fars, Iran

2 2. Deputy Supervisor and Monitoring of the Fars, Department of the Environment, Fars, Iran

3 Head of Fars Environmental Research and Technology Department, Department of the Environment, Fars, Iran

10.22034/eiap.2023.179281

Abstract

If we be aware of the trend of air pollution and the factors affecting pollution, we can reduce these factors and think of important measures for them and work to protect the environment, including the air, which in turn reduces the long run social and economic costs of pollution. The Euro 5 emissions’s standard has been implemented in EU member states since 2009. This law was supposed to be implemented in Iran from 2012, but it faced many obstacles. In this study, due to growing trend of pollution in major cities of the Iran, the emission of carbon monoxide (an indicator of pollution) has been simulated using the system dynamics approach in the period 2021-2042 for the city of Shiraz (as a case study). By continuing the current situation, the population of Shiraz increases through two natural population growth and migration. Appropriate air pollution control strategies have been proposed using public transportation, technical inspection, traffic management, and the offer of alternative fuels. Based on the simulation results in different scenarios, replacing Euro 4 gasoline with Euro 5, carbon monoxide emissions in Shiraz will be significantly reduced in the long run. Otherwise, the continuation of the current trend in 1420, carbon monoxide will become a serious challenge for the city of Shiraz.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Armah, F. A., Yawson, D. O., & Pappoe, A. A. (2010). A systems dynamics approach to explore traffic congestion and air pollution link in the city of Accra, Ghana. Sustainability, 2(1), 252-265.
Bai, Y., Deng, X., Jiang, S., Zhang, Q., & Wang, Z. (2018). Exploring the relationship between urbanization and urban eco-efficiency: Evidence from prefecture-level cities in China. Journal of cleaner production, 195, 1487-1496.
Beckx, C., Panis, L. I., Arentze, T., Janssens, D., Torfs, R., Broekx, S., & Wets, G. (2009). A dynamic activity-based population modelling approach to evaluate exposure to air pollution: methods and application to a Dutch urban area. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 29(3), 179-185.
Carrington, D. (2017). Global pollution kills 9m a year and threatens' survival of human societies'. The Guardian, 20(10).
Currell, M. J., & Han, D. (2017). The Global Drain: Why China's water pollution problems should matter to the rest of the world. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 59(1), 16-29.
Díaz, G., Macia, H., Valero, V., Boubeta-Puig, J., & Cuartero, F. (2020). An Intelligent Transportation System to control air pollution and road traffic in cities integrating CEP and Colored Petri Nets. Neural Computing and Applications, 32(2), 405-426.
Department of the Environment, Fars, Iran.
Feng, Y., Chen, S., & Zhang, L. (2013). System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing, China. Ecological Modelling, 252, 44-52.
García, J. M. (2020). Theory and Practical Exercises of System Dynamics: Modeling and Simulation with Vensim PLE. Preface John Sterman: Juan Martin Garcia.
Ghaffarzadegan, N., Lyneis, J., & Richardson, G. P. (2011). How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review, 27(1), 22-44.
Gong, H., Simwanda, M., & Murayama, Y. (2017). An internet-based GIS platform providing data for visualization and spatial analysis of urbanization in major Asian and African cities. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 6(8), 257.
Goodarzi, F., Ershadi, M., Arsanjani, M. A., & Firouzshahi, M. (2016). System dynamics modelling of air pollution in megacities: An investigation in megacity of Tehran. Applied environmental and biological sciences, 6(8), 7-13.
Hosseinabad, E. R., & Moraga, R. J. (2017). Air Pollution Mitigation in Metropolitans Using System Dynamics Approach. Paper presented at the IIE Annual Conference. Proceedings.
James, J., Li, V. O., & Lam, A. Y. (2012). Sensor deployment for air pollution monitoring using public transportation system. Paper presented at the 2012 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation.
Jia, S., Liu, X., & Yan, G. (2019). Effect of APCF policy on the haze pollution in China: A system dynamics approach. Energy Policy, 125, 33-44.
Komilovna, A. M. (2019). Waste as a source of environmental pollution. Научные исследования(4 (30)).
McGee, J. A., & York, R. (2018). Asymmetric relationship of urbanization and CO2 emissions in less developed countries. PloS one, 13(12), e0208388.
Moghadam, R., Jozi, S. A., Hejazi, R., Zaeimdar, M., & Malmasi, S. (2021). A Strategic Management Plan for Reducing Air Pollution Using the SWOT Model: A Case Study of District 2 of Tehran Municipality. Anthropogenic Pollution, 5(2), 85-92.
Moraga, R., & Rabiei Hosseinabad, E. (2017). A system dynamics approach in air pollution mitigation of metropolitan areas with sustainable development perspective: a case study of Mexico City. Journal of Applied Environmental and Biological Sciences, 7(12), 164-174.
Niu, F., Wang, F., & Chen, M. (2019). Modelling urban spatial impacts of land-use/transport policies. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 29(2), 197-212.
Novan, K. (2015). Valuing the wind: renewable energy policies and air pollution avoided. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(3), 291-326.
Parry, I., Black, M. S., & Vernon, N. (2021). Still not getting energy prices right: A global and country update of fossil fuel subsidies: International Monetary Fund.
Piqueras, P., & Vizenor, A. (2016). The rapidly growing death toll attributed to air pollution: A global responsibility. Policy Brief for GSDR, 1-4.
Rahman, F. A., Aziz, M. M. A., Saidur, R., Bakar, W. A. W. A., Hainin, M., Putrajaya, R., & Hassan, N. A. (2017). Pollution to solution: Capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and its utilization as a renewable energy source for a sustainable future. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 71, 112-126.
Shahgholian, K., & Hajihosseini, H. (2009). A dynamic model of air pollution, health, and population growth using system dynamics: A study on Tehran-Iran (with computer simulation by the software Vensim). Int J Environ, 3(11), 372-379.
Sterman, J. D. (2001). System dynamics modeling: tools for learning in a complex world. California management review, 43(4), 8-25.
Torres, J. P., Kunc, M., & O'brien, F. (2017). Supporting strategy using system dynamics. European Journal of Operational Research, 260(3), 1081-1094.
Vafa-Arani, H., Jahani, S., Dashti, H., Heydari, J., & Moazen, S. (2014). A system dynamics modeling for urban air pollution: A case study of Tehran, Iran. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 31, 21-36.
Vallero, D. A. (2014). Fundamentals of air pollution: Academic press.
Wu, Y., & Zhang, L. (2017). Can the development of electric vehicles reduce the emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in developing countries? Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 51, 129-145.
 
Environmental Researches
Volume 14, Issue 27
Recerches
September 2023
Pages 3-23

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics