Review and Forecast of Carbon Dioxide Gas in the Emission Sectors: The Case of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

2 SHAHID CHAMRAN AHVAZ

Abstract

Different sectors emit carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere which comprises 83 percent of the gases responsible for climate warming. In this paper we have for the first time forecast the emission of CO2 by different sectors across Iran. Sectors were recognized based on EIA guidelines. The aim was to examine trends and forecast the emission of CO2 in the country for the period 1960-2013 and by the polluting sectors over the years 1971-2010. The last three years of data of polluting sectors were used to predict patterns. Prediction of CO2 emission was conducted for each sector and the whole country for the year 2034. The highest emission was related to transport sector and the lowest to the industrial sector. Forecast show that by the year 2034, the service sector will most likely surpass the transport sector in terms of CO2 emission and using GARCH method, per capita CO2 emission will increase to 10.09 tons.
 

Keywords

References

سوری، ع. 1393. اقتصاد سنجیهمراه با کاربرد  Eviews8& stata12، مجلد دوم، چاپ دوم. تهران: انتشارات فرهنگ شناسی.
گجراتی، د. 1385. مبانی اقتصاد سنجی. مجلد اول ، ترجمه‌‌ حمید ابریشمی. چاپ چهارم. تهران: انتشارات دانشگاه تهران. 
لطفعلی‌‌پور، م. ر.؛ فلاحی، م. ع. و بستام، م. ر. 1391. بررسی مسائل زیست‌‌محیطی و پیش‌‌بینی انتشار دی‌‌اکسیدکربن در اقتصاد ایران. مطالعات اقتصاد کاربردی در ایران. 109-81: (3)1.
Bretschger, U. & Karydas, C. 2014. Optimum Growth and Carbon Policies with Lags in the Climate System, OxCarre Working Papers 144, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
Gradus, R. & smulders, S. 1993. "The Trade-off Between Environmental Care And Long-Term Growth Pollution in Three Prototype Growth Model". Journal of economic. No 58:pp 25-51.
Engel, R.F. 1982. Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedasticity with Estimates The Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrics, no 50, pp 987-1000.
Rebelo, S. 1991. Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-run Growth". Journal of Political Economy, no 99, pp500-521.
Pao, H.T. & Tsai, C.M. 2011. Modeling and Forecasting the CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth in Brazil. Energy. 36: 2450-2458.
Zhu, B.; Wang, K.; Chevallier, J. & wang Ping Wei, Y. 2015. Can China Achieve Its Carbon Itensity Target By 2020 While Sustaining Economic Growth?. Ecological Economics. 119:209-216.
Environmental Researches
Volume 10, Issue 19
environmental and development Journal
September 2019
Pages 147-155

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics