The Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Using Climate Change Scenarios and Statistical Exponential Downscaling Models

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assist. Profe. Department of Ecological Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Jiroft University, Iran

2 Assoc. Profe. Department of Reclamation of Dry and Mountainou Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Climate change is now recognized as one of the key environmental challenges of the 21st century. Earth warming has been heightened by global warming along with falling rainfall. In this regard, by using statistical exponential downscaling models and climate change scenarios (A2 and B2), prediction of temperature and precipitation parameters in the southern region of Kerman province has been investigated. The results showed that the precipitation values ​​in the future period compared to baseline at Bam synoptic station increased by 7.32 and 8.46 mm, respectively, in scenario A2 and scenario B2. Also, the results showed that precipitation values ​​in the upcoming period compared to baseline at Bam synoptic station increased by 7.32 and 8.46 mm, respectively, in scenario A2 and scenario B2. On the other hand, at the synoptic station of Jiroft, the average season temperatures were in the scenario A2 (24.79, 8.88, 17.38, and -48.5), the temperature increase in the spring and summer and the decrease in the temperature in the fall and in winter, the values in the scenario B2 are (26.41, 10.8, 16.65, and 6.27), respectively, in the spring and summer and the fall in winter and autumn.

Keywords


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