Environmental Researches

Environmental Researches

Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Modeling in Shiraz City and Its Surrounding Areas Using Remote Sensing and the CA-Markov Model for Future Change Prediction

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mahta Maleki Doborji 1
Hossein Hasani 2
Naghmeh Mobarghei Dinan 3
1 Master's Student, Department of Environmental Planning and Design, Environmental Sciences Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Master’s degree, Department of Environmental Planning, Management, and Education, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Planning and Design, Environmental Sciences Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/eiap.2025.229981
Abstract
This study aims to quantitatively assess and model the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in Shiraz city and its surrounding areas from 2002 to 2023, with the objective of predict potential future changes up to 2043. To this end, LULC maps of the study area were initially generated using Landsat satellite imagery and a neural network algorithm within the ENVI 5.3.1 software environment, classifying the area into three categories: built-up areas, vegetation cover and barren lands. The overall accuracy of  the classification for the years 2002, 2013 and 2023 was obtained as 93.02%, 88.66% and 91.33%, respectively, and the Kappa coefficient for these years were calculated as 89.53%, 83%, and 87%, respectively. In the next step, by applying the Markov model using the LULC maps of 2002 and 2013, a Cramer’s V value of 0.85 was calculated. Subsequently, the LULC map for the year 2023 was simulated using the CA-Markov model within the TerrSet 18.3.1 software environment. Subsequently, by comparing the classified (actual) and simulated LULC maps for the year 2023, a standard Kappa index of 0.92 was obtained. Finally, the predicted LULC map for the year 2043 was simulated using the CA-Markov model. The results revealed that between 2002 and 2023, built-up areas experienced a significant increase of 39.27% in spatial extent, but during the same period, vegetation cover and barren lands showed notable decrease of 39.41% and 20.03%, respectively, with much of these areas having been converted to built-up land. moreover, the LULC maps of 2002, 2013 and 2023 indicated that the physical expansion of Shiraz city has primarily occurred toward the west, south, and southeast, reflecting a pattern of unplanned and horizontal urban growth between 2002 and 2023. According to the prediction results of this study, by 2043, the areas of built-up areas and vegetation cover are expected to increase by 8.47% and 20.80%, respectively, compared to 2023. In contrast, the area of barren lands is projected to decrease by 16.58% with most of the lost area likely to be converted into built-up areas. The predicted LULC map of the study area in 2043 also indicated that the physical expansion of Shiraz city will continue in a horizontal and dispersed manner, a pattern that deviated from the standard form of urban growth.
Keywords
Land use and land cover
Markov chain
CA-Markov
Prediction
Shiraz city
Subjects
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Environmental Researches
Volume 16, Issue 31
Recerches
September 2025
Pages 169-189