Application of Sensitivity Analysis and Error Propagation in Spatial Multi- Criteria Decision Making (Case Study: Urban Suitability Assessment for Tehran Province)

Document Type : Original Article

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Abstract

In real world situations, available data to decision makers are often uncertain and imprecise due to measurement errors and incomplete understanding of the situation by the decision makers, normally, But also wrongly spatial multi-criteria decision making is conducted without due regard to data errors and their propagation in the process. However, these errors can propagate during the decision making process and get confounded by other errors including criteria relationships and ultimately impact on the final decision made. In this research, error analysis was carried out regarding spatial multi-criteria decision making that included uncertainties in factors and their associated weights. Urban suitability mapping for Tehran Province provided a case study in which two methods were used to introduce errors and assess their effects: 1. insertion of errors in each factor and simulation of their propagation in the process, and 2. changing of factor weights and evaluation of their effects on ranking of suitable sites. Our results indicate that uncertain and imprecise data can be safely used in these circumstances given knowledge of how uncertain and imprecise they are and how they propagate during data analysis. 

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