کمی‌سازی خدمت اکوسیستمی کنترل فرسایش تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم در حوضه آبخیز گرگا‌ن‌رود

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه لرستان

2 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد گنبد کاووس

چکیده

با تشدید تخریب محیط‌زیست در نتیجه تقاضای روزافزون خدمات اکوسیستمی، اکوسیستم‌ها در آینده‌ای نزدیک قادر به تامین خدمات ضروری جوامع انسانی نخواهند بود. بنابراین، پیش‌بینی اثرات تغییر اکوسیستم بر عرضه خدمات با فرایند مدل‌سازی امری اجتناب‌ناپذیر به نظر می‌رسد. در این میان مدل‌های هیدرولوژیک از جمله SWAT به عنوان ابزاری برای کمک به تخمین خدمات اکوسیستم در حوضه‌های آبخیز پیشنهاد شده‌اند. در سال‌های اخیر تغییر اقلیم، خشکسالی و فعالیت‌های انسانی از جمله تغییر کاربری اراضی، اثرات قابل توجهی بر توان اکوسیستم‌ها در حفظ و نگهداشت خاک در حوضه آبخیز گرگان‌رود گذاشته است. بنابراین، پژوهش حاضر با هدف به کارگیری مدل هیدرولوژیک SWAT در کمی‌سازی خدمت اکوسیستمی کنترل فرسایش تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم در این حوضه انجام شد. به این منظور بعد از شبیه‌سازی جریان رودخانه و بار رسوب درگام زمانی ماهانه، از الگوریتم SUFI-2 برای واسنجی و آنالیز عدم قطعیت از 1976 تا 1990 استفاده شد. سپس مدل برای دوره زمانی 1991 تا 1994 اعتبارسنجی شد. حصول مقادیر 7/0NS= و 64/0NS= برای واسنجی جریان و رسوب ماهانه در ایستگاه قزاقلی، نشان‌دهنده عملکرد رضایت‌بخش مدل SWAT در برآورد جریان و عملکرد خوب در شبیه‌سازی رسوب ماهانه است. در ادامه شاخص خدمت اکوسیستمی کنترل فرسایش (ECI) به شکل مکانی کمی‌سازی شد. نتایج نشان داد که سطح عرضه خدمت مورد نظر به‌شدت تحت تاثیر شرایط اقلیمی قرار دارد و با تغییر شرایط بارشی به مقدار قابل توجه تغییر می‌کند. همچنین نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که می‌توان مدل SWAT را به عنوان ابزاری ارزشمند در کمی‌سازی خدمات هیدرولوژیک اکوسیستم به کار گرفت، اگرچه نیازمند پردازش‌های پسین است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Quantifying the Soil Erosion Control Ecosystem Service Under Climate Change in Gorganroud Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Asadolahi 1
  • Mohammad Sadegh Norouzi Nazar 2
1 Lorestan University,
2 Islamic Azad University, Gonbad Kavoos
چکیده [English]

By intensifing environment degradation as a result of increasing demand for ecosystem services, ecosystems will not be able to provide essential services for human communities in the near future. Therefore, it is essential to predict the effects of ecosystem change on service supply through modeling process. Hydrological models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) have been proposed as robust tools for quantifying the ecosystem services in watersheds. Gorganrood watershed is one of the most important watersheds in the North of Iran which is highly affected by agricultural activities. In recent years, climate change, drought and human activities such as landuse change and deforestation have affected the potential of ecosystems in soil retention in Gorganroud watershed. Therefore, this study aimed to quantify soil erosion regulation ecosystem service under climate change using SWAT hydrological model. To achieve this purpose, after simulating monthly discharge and sediment in Arc SWAT, SUFI-2 algorithm was used to perform the combined calibration and uncertainty analysis process for 1976-1990. The model was then validated for 1991-1994. Values of NS= 0.7 and NS=0.64 indicate the satisfactory and good performance of SWAT model in simulating monthly discharge and sediment, respectively. Finally, the Erosion Control Index (ECI) was spatially quantified and mapped. The results show that the delivery level of erosion control service is severely affected by climate change. This research also shows that SWAT model can be used as a valueable tool for quantification of hydrological ecosystem services. However, further analysis is required after simulation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Gorganroud
  • Regulating services
  • Calibration
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • SUFI-2
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