بررسی تحلیل فضایی خطر سیلاب در حوضه‌‌ آبخیز خیاو‌‌چای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

چکیده

یکی از پرحادثه‌‌‌ترین مخاطرات طبیعی دنیا، مخاطرات سیلاب است. شناخت و پهنه‌‌بندی سیلاب‌‌های حوضه‌‌های آبخیز در مدیریت سیلاب‌‌ها، کنترل و مهار آن و در نتیجه در کاهش میزان خسارت‌های  آن، موثر است. هدف تحقیق حاضر، پهنه‌‌بندی حوضه‌‌ی خیاوچای از لحاظ پتانسیل وقوع سیلاب می‌‌باشد. در این مطالعه ابتدا، ده عامل شیب، ارتفاع، بارش، شماره منحنی، ارتفاع رواناب، فاصله از رودخانه، خاک، لیتولوژی، پوشش‌‌گیاهی و کاربری ‌‌اراضی، به عنوان عوامل موثر  برای ایجاد سیلاب در منطقه شناسایی شدند. سپس لایه‌‌های اطلاعاتی در محیط سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی تهیه شدند. وزن‌‌دهی لایه‌‌ها با استفاده از روش کرتیک انجام شد. تحلیل و مدل‌‌سازی نهایی با استفاده از روش تحلیل لکه‌‌های داغ به عنوان روش آمار فضایی و نیز روش WLC به عنوان یکی از روش‌‌های تصمیم‌‌گیری چند معیاره، انجام شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد، عوامل ارتفاع، لیتولوژی، شیب و بارش به ترتیب با ضریب وزنی 173/0، 163/0، 139/0 و 133/0، بیشترین تاثیر را بر ایجاد سیل در حوضه‌‌ی مطالعاتی دارند. همچنین، با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده به ترتیب 37/11، 76/48 و 54/57 کیلومتر‌‌مربع از مساحت محدوده، در طبقات لکه داغ، با ضریب اطمینان 99، 95 و 90 درصد، قرار دارند. مناطق پرخطر (مناطق لکه داغ، با ضریب اطمینان 99 درصد)، به طور عمده در محدوده‌‌ی شهری مشکین‌‌شهر و سپس در مناطق پرشیب و کوهستانی منطقه قرار دارد. به طورکلی نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که حوضه خیاو‌‌چای دارای توان بسیار بالا از لحاظ رخداد سیلاب می‌‌باشد. بنابراین، انجام اقدام‌های حفاظتی، آبخیزداری و مدیریتی در حوضه‌‌ی مورد مطالعه ضروری است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Study of Spatial Analysis of Flood Hazard in Khiyav Chay Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Aghil Madadi
  • elnaz piroozi
  • elham shokrzadeh fard
University of Mohaghghe Ardabili
چکیده [English]

One of the most dangerous natural hazards in the world is the risk of flood. Identification and zoning watershed flood can be effective in managing flood management, controlling and controlling it, and thus reducing its damages. The purpose of the present research is to zonation the khiyav chay basin in terms of potential flood occurrence. In this study, ten factors of the slope, height, precipitation, CN, runoff height, distance from the river, soil, lithology, vegetation, and land use were identified as effective factors for flood formation in the region. Then the layers of information were provided in the GIS environment. Layer weighing was done using the Critical method. The final analysis and modeling were performed using hot spots analysis as a spatial statistics method and the WLC method as a multi-criteria decision-making method. The results of this study showed that elevation, lithology, slope, and precipitation factors have the highest effect on flood formation in study basins with weight coefficients of 0.173, 0/163, 0/139, and 0/133 percent, respectively. Also, according to the results, 11.37, 48.76, and 57.54 square kilometers of the area was located in hot spot classes with a confidence level of 99, 95, and 90 percent. Highly hazardous areas (hot spot areas, with a 99% confidence interval) are mainly located in the city's Meshkinshahr area and then in the hilly and mountainous areas of the region. All in all, the results of the study show that the khiyav chay basin has very high potential in terms of happening flood, so the accomplishment of conservation, watershed, and management works and steps in the area of study is important and necessary.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hot Spot
  • Critical
  • GIS
  • WLC
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