پیش‌بینی ‌تاثیر استفاده از بنزین یورو 5 بر وضعیت انتشار آلودگی هوا در شهر شیراز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری اقتصاد، عضو هیات علمی مجتمع آموزش عالی لارستان، ایران

2 کارشناسی ارشد شیمی فیزیک، معاون نظارت و پایش اداره کل محیط زیست فارس، ایران

3 دکتری برنامه ریزی محیط زیست، رئیس اداره تحقیقات و فناوری اداره کل محیط زیست فارس، ایران

10.22034/eiap.2023.179281

چکیده

با آگاهی از روند آلودگی هوا و عوامل ‌تاثیر گذار بر انتشار آلودگی هوا، برای کنترل این عوامل می‌توان تدابیر مهمی اندیشید و در راستای حفظ محیط زیست و از جمله کیفیت هوا برآمد. با توجه به روند رو به رشد آلایندگی در شهرهای بزرگ کشور در این پژوهش به عنوان یک مورد مطالعاتی با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم، انتشار آلاینده مونواکسیدکربن (شاخصی از آلودگی هوا) در دوره زمانی 1399-1420 برای شهر شیراز ‌شبیه‌سازی شده است. هدف از این پژوهش مدل‌‌سازی انتشار آلاینده مونواکسیدکربن و ارزیابی سیاست استفاده از بنزین یورو 5 به جای یورو 4 جهت کاهش و یا کنترل آلودگی هوای شهر شیراز در بلند مدت می‌‌باشد. جمعیت شهر، حجم ترافیک، توسعه شهر و شهرنشینی، فضای سبز، مهاجرت، مصرف سوخت‌‌های فسیلی بر اساس ادبیات تحقیق به عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی ‌موثر در تولید مونواکسیدکربن در نظر گرفته شده‌‌اند. بر اساس نتایج ‌شبیه‌سازی در سناریوهای مختلف، با جایگزینی بنزین یورو چهار با بنزین یورو پنج، انتشار مونواکسیدکربن در شهر شیراز به صورت قابل توجهی در بلند مدت کاهش خواهد یافت. در غیر این صورت و ادامه روند فعلی در سال 1420 مونواکسیدکربن به یک چالش جدی برای شهر شیراز تبدیل خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the Impact of Using Euro 5 Gasoline on Air Pollution Levels in the City of Shiraz

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Hossein Ostadzad 1
  • Ghasem Nahavandi 2
  • Golafarin Zare 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Larestan, Fars, Iran
2 2. Deputy Supervisor and Monitoring of the Fars, Department of the Environment, Fars, Iran
3 Head of Fars Environmental Research and Technology Department, Department of the Environment, Fars, Iran
چکیده [English]

If we be aware of the trend of air pollution and the factors affecting pollution, we can reduce these factors and think of important measures for them and work to protect the environment, including the air, which in turn reduces the long run social and economic costs of pollution. The Euro 5 emissions’s standard has been implemented in EU member states since 2009. This law was supposed to be implemented in Iran from 2012, but it faced many obstacles. In this study, due to growing trend of pollution in major cities of the Iran, the emission of carbon monoxide (an indicator of pollution) has been simulated using the system dynamics approach in the period 2021-2042 for the city of Shiraz (as a case study). By continuing the current situation, the population of Shiraz increases through two natural population growth and migration. Appropriate air pollution control strategies have been proposed using public transportation, technical inspection, traffic management, and the offer of alternative fuels. Based on the simulation results in different scenarios, replacing Euro 4 gasoline with Euro 5, carbon monoxide emissions in Shiraz will be significantly reduced in the long run. Otherwise, the continuation of the current trend in 1420, carbon monoxide will become a serious challenge for the city of Shiraz.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Air Pollution
  • System Dynamics
  • Shiraz
  • Simulation
  • Euro 5
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