ارزیابی حساسیت‌سنجی تصاعد گاز گلخانه‌ای اکسید نیتروس در برخی اراضی زراعی استان خوزستان با مدل‌های خطی و غیر خطی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری اقلیم شناسی کشاورزی، گروه اقلیم شناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقلیم شناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

3 پژوهشگر موسسه تحقیقات خاک و آب، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، کرج، ایران

10.22034/eiap.2023.179285

چکیده

هدف مطالعه حاضر برآورد انتشار گاز اکسید نیتروس در تعدادی از مزارع برنج، گندم و نیشکر خوزستان با استفاده از چهار مدل DAYCENT، DNDC، YLRM و IPCC_EF است. برای این منظور در ابتدا میزان تصاعد گاز اکسید نیتروس در اراضی زراعی اندازه‌گیری شد. سپس با استفاده از مدل‌ها میزان تصاعد گاز اکسید نیتروس برآورد گردید. برای ارزیابی و مقایسه دقت مدل‌ها از شاخص‌های آماری ضریب تعیین، خطای حداکثر، ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا، کارایی مدل و ضریب جرم باقی‌مانده  استفاده شد. انتشار اکسید نیتروس کشت برنج در چهار مدل بین 001/0- 17/1 برآورد گردید. میزان انتشار اکسید نیتروس از کشت گندم بین 049/0 – 5/0 و از کشت نیشکر ایستگاه شوشتر بین 071/0 -3 و از کشت نیشکر ایستگاه آبادان بین 085/0 -3 متغیر تعیین شد. در مدل رگرسیون خطی کشت برنج (17/1)، در مدل IPCC_EF کشت‌های گندم (5/0)، و نیشکر (3) بیش‌ترین مقدار تصاعد گاز اکسید نیتروس تن در هکتار در سال به دست آوردند. با توجه به نتایج شاخص‌های آماری برای چهار مدل DAYCENT، DNDC، YLRM و IPCC_EF جهت برآورد گاز اکسید نیتروس، به ترتیب، ضریب تعیین (86/0، 94/0، 99/0 و 82/0)، ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا (03/0، 01 /0، 58/0و 26/0) و کارایی مدل (55/0، 94/0، 87/147- و63/30-) تعیین شد. در مقایسه با مقادیر مشاهده‌ شده ، مدل DAYCENT برای ذرت، مدل DNDC برای برنج، مدل رگرسیون خطی برای کشت نیشکر ایستگاه آبادان عملکرد خوبی را نشان دادند. با توجه به نتایج شاخص‌ ضریب تعیین، مدل‌های YLRM و DNDC و بر اساس کارایی مدل DNDC بیش‌ترین دقت را به دست آوردند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity Assessment of Nitrous oxide Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Agricultural Lands of Khuzestan Province with Linear and Non-linear Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nasrin Moradimajd 1
  • Gholam abbas Falah ghalhari 2
  • Mansour Chatrenour 3
1 Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
2 Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
3 Department of Land Evaluation, Soil and Water Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study is to estimate emission of nitrous oxide gas in rice, wheat and sugarcane fields of Khuzestan using four models: DAYCENT, DNDC, YLRM and IPCC_EF. For this purpose, nitrous oxide gas precipitation was first measured. Then, using models was estimated nitrous oxide gas expansion rate. To evaluate and compare accuracy of models, statistical characteristics were used, coefficient of determination, maximum error, root mean squares error, modeling efficiency and remaining coefficient of residual mass. Release of nitrous oxide in rice cultivation in four models was estimated to be between 0.17 and 0.171. Rate of nitrous oxide emission from wheat cultivation was between 0.5-0.049 and from Shushtar station sugarcane cultivation was between -0.0371 and from Abadan station sugarcane cultivation was between 0.03-0.85. In linear regression model of rice cultivation (1.17), in IPCC_EF model, wheat cultivation (0.5) and sugarcane (3) obtained the highest amount of nitrous oxide gas per ton per hectare per year. According to results of statistical indicators for four models DAYCENT, DNDC, YLRM and IPCC_EF to estimate nitrous oxide gas were determined, respectively, the coefficient of determination (0.86, 0.94, 0.99 and 0.82), root mean squares error (0.03, 0.01, 0.85 and 0.26) and modeling efficiency (0.55, 0.94, -4.87 and -30.63).Compared to observed values, DAYCENT model for corn, DNDC model for rice, linear regression model for sugarcane cultivation of Abadan station showed good performance. Based on results of coefficient of determination, YLRM and DNDC models received the highest accuracy based on modeling efficiency of DNDC model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Nitrous oxide
  • Greenhouse gas
  • DNDC model
  • IPCC_EF model
  • YLRM linear regression model
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