شبیه‌سازی پویایی خسارت‌های رفاهی آلودگی ناشی از فعالیت‌های اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مرودشت

چکیده

ویژگی اصلی اقتصادی این مطالعه، ایجاد آلودگی در فرایند رشد اقتصادی و تاثیر منفی آن در رفاه جامعه است. بر این اساس هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر تعیین خسارت رفاه ناشی از آلودگی فعالیت‌های اقتصادی در ایران در چارچوب الگویی پویاست. از اهداف این تحقیق بررسی انتقال تکنولوژی پاک و ترجیحات محیط‌زیستی تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان بر انتشار آلودگی و تاثیر آن در کیفیت محیط‌زیست و رفاه جامعه می‌باشد. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل الگو عناصر شامل توابع، ‌تولید، نرخ سرمایه فیزیکی و انسانی، ‌انباشت آلودگی، توزیع درآمد و شرایط اولیه، مطلوبیت مصرف‌کننده و رفاه می‌باشد. در این جهت با در نظر گرفتن سال پایه 1390 و به کارگیری مقادیر پارامترهای متناظر با اقتصاد ایران، مسیر متغیرهای آلودگی سرانه و خسارت‌های رفاهی ناشی از آن در یک افق 20 ساله شبیه‌سازی شده است. در این تحقیق متغیر انباشت رفاهی در سناریوهای متفاوت شامل انتشار تکنولوژی پاک، ترجیحات محیط‌زیستی تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان شبیه‌سازی شده‌اند. نتایج بیانگر آن است که میزان آلودگی، انتشار آلودگی و خسارت‌های رفاهی در فعالیت‌های اقتصادی همراه با افزایش تولید افزایش پیدا نموده و نتایج شبیه‌سازی نیز روند افزایش را تایید می‌کند. بر این اساس با ادامه وضعیت فعلی اهداف توسعه پایدار در افق موردنظر قابل دستیابی نخواهد بود. نتایج بیانگر آن است که با اجرای سناریوی افزایش پارامترهای انتشار تکنولوژی پاک و ترجیحات محیط‌زیستی تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان تاثیر معکوس بر میزان آلودگی و انتشار آلودگی و خسارت‌های رفاهی دارد. با اجرای سناریوی انتقال تکنولوژی پاک به 45/0 مقادیر میزان آلودگی و خسارت رفاهی ناشی از آن در سال 1410 به ترتیب 60/44 و 01/0 درصد کاهش پیدا خواهد کرد. با اجرای سناریوی ترجیحات محیط‌زیستی تولیدکنندگان به مقدار 2، مقادیر میزان آلودگی و خسارت‌های رفاهی در سال 1410 به ترتیب به 07/64 و 01/0 درصد کاهش پیدا خواهد کرد. در نهایت با اجرای سناریوی ترجیحات محیط‌زیستی مصرف‌کنندگان خسارت رفاهی ناشی از آلودگی در سال 1410 به 02/0 درصد کاهش پیدا خواهد کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamic Simulation of Welfare Damage Caused by Iran's Economic Activities

نویسندگان [English]

  • abozar rosta
  • seyed nemat MOUSAVI
  • bahaedin najafi
Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht
چکیده [English]

The main economic feature of this study is the creation of pollution in the process of economic growth and its negative impact on community welfare. This article analyzes the welfare loss of pollution resulting from production in Iranian economy using an augmented growth model and designing an economic-ecological system dynamics model. The aim of this study is to investigate the transfer of clean technology and environmental preferences of producers and consumers to pollution emissions and its impact on environmental quality and community welfare. In order to analyze the pattern, elements include functions, production, physical and human capital, accumulation of pollution, income distribution, and initial conditions, consumer utility and welfare. Regarding 2011 as a base year, the time path of per capita pollution and related welfare loss are simulated for the Iranian economy over the 20-year time horizon. in this research , welfare has been simulated in different scenarios including the diffusion of clean technology, preferences of producers and consumers. The results indicate that the amount of pollution emissions diffusion and welfare losses in economic activities increases with the increase in production and simulation results also confirm the trend. The simulation results indicate that with persistence of the status quo, pollution, emission pollution and its welfare loss rise with positive rate. The results show that by implementing the scenario of increasing the parameters of clean technology diffusion and environmental preferences of producers and consumers have an adverse effect on the rate of pollution and pollution emissions and welfare damages. By implementing the clean technology diffusion transfer scenario to 45% of the amount of pollution and the welfare damage due to it in 2031, will decrease by 60 % and 0.01 % , respectively. By implementing the scenario of environmental preferences of producers in the amount of 2 values of pollution, and welfare damages in 2031 will be reduced to 64.07 and 0.01 percent, respectively. Finally, by implementing the scenario of environmental preferences of consumers, the welfare damage caused by pollution in 1410 will be reduced to 0.02 percent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Damage welfare
  • Economic Growth
  • System dynamic
  • Clean technology
  • Iran's economy
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