ارزیابی و مدل‌‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین شهر شیراز و اراضی اطراف آن و پیش‌‌بینی تغییرات احتمالی برای آینده، با استفاده از سنجش از دور و مدل CA-Markov

ملکی دوبرجی, مهتا; حسنی, حسین; مبرقعی دینان, نغمه

doi:10.22034/eiap.2025.229981

ارزیابی و مدل‌‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین شهر شیراز و اراضی اطراف آن و پیش‌‌بینی تغییرات احتمالی برای آینده، با استفاده از سنجش از دور و مدل CA-Markov

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

مهتا ملکی دوبرجی ¹

حسین حسنی ²

نغمه مبرقعی دینان ³

¹ نشجوی‌‌کارشناسی‌‌ارشد، گروه برنامه‌‌ریزی و طراحی محیط‌‌، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

² دانش‌‌آموخته‌‌ کارشناسی‌‌ ارشد، گروه برنامه‌‌ریزی، مدیریت و آموزش محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط‌‌زیست، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

³ دانشیار گروه برنامه‌‌ریزی و طراحی محیط، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

10.22034/eiap.2025.229981

چکیده

هدف این مطالعه ارزیابی کمی و مدلسازی دینامیک فضایی- زمانی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین در شهر شیراز و مناطق اطراف آن از سال 1381 تا 1402، با هدف پیش‌‌بینی تغییرات احتمالی تا سال 1422 است. بدین‌‌منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌‌ای لندست نقشه کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین منطقه مورد مطالعه با استفاده از الگوریتم شبکه عصبی در سه کلاس کاربری ساخت‌‌وساز، پوشش گیاهی و اراضی بایر در محیط نرم‌‌افزار Envi 5.3.1 تهیه شد. مقدار صحت دقت‌‌کلی حاصل از طبقه‌‌بندی برای سال‌‌های 1381، 1392 و 1402 به ترتیب 02/93، 66/88 و 33/91 درصد و مقدار ضریب کاپا نیز برای این سه سال به ترتیب برابر با 53/89، 83 و 87 درصد به‌‌دست آمد. در گام بعد با اجرای مدل مارکوف توسط نقشه‌‌ سال‌‌های 1381 و 1392، میزان ضریب کرامر 85/0 محاسبه شد و با به‌‌کارگیری مدل CA-Markov نیز، نقشه سال 1402 در محیط نرم‌‌افزار TerrSet 18.3.1 شبیه‌‌سازی شد. سپس با مقایسه نقشه‌‌های طبقه‌‌بندی‌‌شده (واقعی) و شبیه‌‌سازی ‌‌شده سال 1402، مقدار شاخص کاپای استاندارد 92/0 به دست آمد. در نهایت نقشه پیش‌‌بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین نیز برای سال 1422 با استفاده از مدل CA-Markov شبیه‌‌سازی شد. نتایج نشان داد که بین سال‌‌های 1381 تا 1402 کاربری ساخت‌‌وساز با 27/39 درصد افزایش مساحت، رشد چشمگیری یافته است، اما در بازه زمانی ذکر شده شاهد کاهش قابل‌‌توجه مساحت پوشش گیاهی و اراضی بایر به‌‌ترتیب ‌‌به میزان 41/39 و 03/20 درصد بوده‌‌ایم که بیشتر به کاربری ساخت‌‌‌‌وساز تغییر یافته‌‌اند. همچنین نقشه‌‌های کاربری اراضی سال‌‌های 1381، 1392 و 1402 نشان داد که گسترش فیزیکی شهر به سمت غرب، جنوب و جنوب‌شرق شهر شیراز بوده است که نشان‌‌دهنده رشد افقی و غیراصولی شهر شیراز بین سال‌‌های 1381 تا 1402 است. برطبق پیش‌‌بینی این پژوهش سطح کاربری ساخت‌‌وساز و پوشش گیاهی در سال 1422 نسبت به سال 1402 به‌‌ترتیب به میزان 47/8 و 80/20 درصد افزایش پیدا خواهد کرد، اما سطح اراضی بایر برخلاف دو کاربری دیگر به میزان 58/16 درصد کاهش پیدا خواهد کرد و بیشتر مساحت از دست رفته آن به کاربری ساخت‌‌وساز تغییر خواهد یافت. همچنین نقشه پیش‌‌بینی منطقه مورد مطالعه در سال 1422 نشان داد که روند گسترش فیزیکی شهر شیراز به صورت افقی و پراکنده خواهد بود که چنین رشد فیزیکی برخلاف فرم استاندارد رشد شهری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین

زنجیره مارکوف

CA-Markov

پیش‌‌بینی

شهر شیراز

موضوعات

سایر موارد

عنوان مقاله English

Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Modeling in Shiraz City and Its Surrounding Areas Using Remote Sensing and the CA-Markov Model for Future Change Prediction

نویسندگان English

Mahta Maleki Doborji ¹

Hossein Hasani ²

Naghmeh Mobarghei Dinan ³

¹ Master's Student, Department of Environmental Planning and Design, Environmental Sciences Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

² Master’s degree, Department of Environmental Planning, Management, and Education, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

³ Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Planning and Design, Environmental Sciences Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده English

This study aims to quantitatively assess and model the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in Shiraz city and its surrounding areas from 2002 to 2023, with the objective of predict potential future changes up to 2043. To this end, LULC maps of the study area were initially generated using Landsat satellite imagery and a neural network algorithm within the ENVI 5.3.1 software environment, classifying the area into three categories: built-up areas, vegetation cover and barren lands. The overall accuracy of the classification for the years 2002, 2013 and 2023 was obtained as 93.02%, 88.66% and 91.33%, respectively, and the Kappa coefficient for these years were calculated as 89.53%, 83%, and 87%, respectively. In the next step, by applying the Markov model using the LULC maps of 2002 and 2013, a Cramer’s V value of 0.85 was calculated. Subsequently, the LULC map for the year 2023 was simulated using the CA-Markov model within the TerrSet 18.3.1 software environment. Subsequently, by comparing the classified (actual) and simulated LULC maps for the year 2023, a standard Kappa index of 0.92 was obtained. Finally, the predicted LULC map for the year 2043 was simulated using the CA-Markov model. The results revealed that between 2002 and 2023, built-up areas experienced a significant increase of 39.27% in spatial extent, but during the same period, vegetation cover and barren lands showed notable decrease of 39.41% and 20.03%, respectively, with much of these areas having been converted to built-up land. moreover, the LULC maps of 2002, 2013 and 2023 indicated that the physical expansion of Shiraz city has primarily occurred toward the west, south, and southeast, reflecting a pattern of unplanned and horizontal urban growth between 2002 and 2023. According to the prediction results of this study, by 2043, the areas of built-up areas and vegetation cover are expected to increase by 8.47% and 20.80%, respectively, compared to 2023. In contrast, the area of barren lands is projected to decrease by 16.58% with most of the lost area likely to be converted into built-up areas. The predicted LULC map of the study area in 2043 also indicated that the physical expansion of Shiraz city will continue in a horizontal and dispersed manner, a pattern that deviated from the standard form of urban growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Land use and land cover

Markov chain

CA-Markov

Prediction

Shiraz city

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