اثر سالخوردگی جمعیت، رشد اقتصادی، مصرف انرژی و شهرنشینی بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن در منطقه خاورمیانه: کاربرد مدل هم جمعی پنل

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

2 دانشجوی اقتصاد محیط زیست دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

اثر سالخوردگی جمعیت، رشد اقتصادی و مصرف انرژی بر انتشار
گاز دی‌اکسیدکربندر منطقه خاورمیانه:کاربرد مدل هم‌جمعی پنل
 
 
محمدحسن طرازکار*1، نوید کارگر ده‌بیدی2
 
1 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد منابع‌طبیعی و محیط‌زیست، بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، ایران
 
(تاریخ دریافت: 21/12/1395؛ تاریخ تصویب: 09/07/1397)
 
 
چکیده
هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی اثر کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت سالخوردگی جمعیت، رشد اقتصادی، مصرف انرژی و شهرنشینی بر میزان انتشار گاز دی‌اکسیدکربن، در کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه است. برای این منظور داده‌های 12 کشور منطقه در طی سال‌های 2013-1990 مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. در این مطالعه با توجه به نتایج آزمون‌های ایستایی از رویکرد مدل هم‌جمعی پنل استفاده شد. هم‌چنین بر اساس نتایج آزمون‌های هم‌جمعی پدرونی و کائو به منظور برآورد رابطه بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت به ترتیب از روش‌های (FMOLS) و مدل تصحیح خطا (ECM) استفاده شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که یک رابطه بلند مدت معنا‌داری میان سالخوردگی جمعیت، رشد اقتصادی، مصرف انرژی، شهرنشینی با میزان انتشار گاز دی‌‌اکسیدکربن وجود دارد. بر این اساس یک رابطه‌ U شکل میان سالخوردگی جمعیت و انتشار آلودگی وجود دارد. به طوری که در ابتدا با افزایش جمعیت مسن، میزان انتشار گاز CO2 کاهش یافته، اما در نقطه مرزی حدود 3 درصد، سرانه انتشار آلودگی روند صعودی پیدا می‌کند. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که افزایش نسبی در شهرنشینی، رشد اقتصادی و مصرف انرژی اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر انتشار گاز CO2 دارند.
 
 
 
 
 
 
کلید واژه‌ها: انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن، سالخوردگی جمعیت، شهرنشینی، پنل هم‌جمعی، خاورمیانه
 
 
 
 
 

* نویسنده مسئول:                                                                                 Email: Tarazkar@shirazu.ac.ir         

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Elderly Population, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Urbanization on CO2 Emissions in the Middle East: Application of Panel Cointegration Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohamad hasan Tarazkar 1
  • Navid kargar Dehbidi 2
1 Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Shiraz
2 Environmental economics student at the University of Shiraz
چکیده [English]

The Impact of Elderly Population, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption on CO2 Emissions in the Middle East: Application of Panel Cointegration Approach
 
 
 
1*Tarazkar, M. H.; 2Kargar Dehbidi, N.
 
1 Assist. Profe. of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics,
School of Agriculture, Shiraz University
2 Ph.D. Student of Natural Resources and Environmental Economics,
Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University
 
(Received: 2017/03/11; Accepted: 2018/10/02)
 
 
Abstract
The main purpose of this article is studying the short and long run impact of elderly population, urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions in the Middle East. To this goal, a panel data of 12 Middle East countries over the period of 1990 to 2013 was used. In This study, according to stationary properties of the variables, the panel cointegration approach was applied. Also, based on the results of Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests, the short and long-run relationship was estimated by Error Correction Model (ECM) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) respectively. The results imply that significant long run relationships exist among aged population, urbanization, per capita income and per capita energy consumption with environment pollution. Based on the panel cointegration model, empirical results showed that the relationships between elderly population and CO2 emissions per capita is U-shaped and statistically significant. Therefore, CO2 emission decrease at the initial stage of elderly population growth and then grows again with the increase of elderly population and the turning point is around 3 percent. Moreover, the results imply that a relative increase in urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption are positively affect CO2 emissions per capita.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Keywords: CO2 emissions, Elderly population, Urbanization, Panel cointegration, Middle east
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

* Corresponding Author                                                                                        Email: Tarazkar@shirazu.ac.ir

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • CO2 Emissions
  • Elderly Population
  • urbanization
  • Panel Cointegration
  • Middle East

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