پژوهش های محیط زیست

پژوهش های محیط زیست

ارزیابی اثرات محیط‌‌زیستی عدم خودکفایی منطقه‌‌های شهری یزد با رویکرد پویایی سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد ارزیابی و آمایش سرزمین، دانشکده منابع‌طبیعی و کویرشناسی، دانشگاه یزد، ایران.
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد برنامه‌ریزی محیط‌زیست، دانشکده منابع‌طبیعی و کویرشناسی، دانشگاه یزد، ایران.
3 استادیار گروه محیطزیست، دانشکده منابع‌طبیعی و کویرشناسی، دانشگاه یزد، ایران.
10.22034/eiap.2026.246804
چکیده
فرایند پر شتاب توسعه شهری، که اغلب با کنترل ضعیف کاربری‌‌ها همراه است، از یک‌‌سو باعث گسترش پراکنده، کم‌تراکم و ناکارامد شهری می‌‌شود، از سوی دیگر، پیامدهای محیط‌‌زیستی فراوانی به دنبال دارد. از این‌‌رو، لازم است برای دستیابی به پایداری شهرها، ارتقاء خودکفایی محله‌‌های شهری از اولویت‌‌های اصلی در بسط راهبردهای توسعه شهری باشد. پژوهش حاضر در شهر یزد انجام شده است. با توجه به روند توسعه پرشتابی که طی دو دهه اخیر در این شهر اتفاق افتاده، خودکفایی محله‌‌ها، کاهش یافته است. در نتیجه نیاز به توسعه دسترسی‌‌ها برای جابه‌جایی شهروندان، در حال افزایش است. در این مطالعه از رویکرد پویایی سیستم برای ارزیابی و درک ارتباط عدم خودکفایی شهری و پیامدهای محیط‌‌زیستی آن در شهر یزد، استفاده شد. مدل پویایی سیستم، در سه مرحله اصلی شامل مدل‌سازی مفهومی، ترسیم نمودار جریان و توسعه مدل سیستم دینامیکی در نرم‌افزار ونسیم، بسط داده شد. بر اساس مدل‌‌سازی مفهومی در این تحقیق رابطه بین توسعه شهری و کاهش خودکفایی محله‌‌ها و نیز کاهش کیفیت محیط‌زیست شهری بررسی شد. همچنین نتایج مدل‌‌ سیستم دینامیکی، نشان داد که با ادامه وضع موجود، عدم خودکفایی محله‌‌های شهری و ناپایداری محیط‌‌زیست، تا سال 2040، افزایش پیدا می‌‌کند. همچنین نتایج سناریونویسی نشان می‌‌دهد که اگر خودکفایی مناطق شهری، 30 درصد افزایش یابد، با فرض ثابت ماندن اندازه‌‌ شهر تا سال 2040، تعداد خودروها، 10 درصد و آلودگی هوا 5 درصد کاهش می‌‌یابد. و در صورتی ‌‌که تعداد خودروهای فعال در شهر یزد 20 درصد افزایش پیدا کند، تا سال 2040 آلودگی هوا 30 درصد و ناپایداری شهری 5 درصد افزایش می‌‌یابد. در نتیجه، ثابت نگه‌‌داشتن اندازه شهر، توجه به ارتقاء خودکفایی با هدف ایجاد هسته‌‌های شهری کارامد و توجه به توسعه متوازن کاربری‌‌های شهری در سطح مناطق، از جمله راهبردهایی هستند که وابستگی به خودروهای شخصی، نیاز به سفرهای درون شهری و آلودگی هوا را کاهش می‌‌دهند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Environmental Impact Assessment of the Lack of Urban Self- Sufficiency in Yazd Based on a System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان English

Najmeh Bagheri Fahraji 1
Negin Anooshe 2
Fatemeh Zare 1
Parastoo Parivar 3
1 MSc. of Environmental Evaluation and Land use Planning. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
2 MSc. of Environmental Planning. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
چکیده English

The rapid urban development, often with insufficient land use regulation, results in urban sprawl, low-density areas, and notable environmental impacts. To achieve urban ecological sustainability, prioritizing the self-sufficiency of urban neighborhoods is essential. A study in Yazd found that rapid development in the past two decades has diminished neighborhood self-sufficiency, and also increased the need for citizen transportation access. The study used a system dynamics approach to assess the relationship between urban self-sufficiency and environmental consequences. The modeling results suggest that without intervention, the lack of self-sufficiency in urban neighborhoods and environmental instability will worsen by 2040. Different scenarios indicated that a 30% increase in urban self-sufficiency while keeping the city's size constant could lead to a 10% decrease in active vehicles and a 5% reduction in air pollution by 2040. Conversely, a 20% rise in active cars would result in a 30% increase in air pollution and a 5% decline in urban sustainability by 2040. To address these challenges, crucial strategies include maintaining the city's size, promoting self-sufficiency to enhance urban cores, and ensuring balanced regional development. These initiatives are intended to reduce reliance on private vehicles, decrease local travel demands, and address air pollution.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Urban development
system dynamics approach
Urban self-sufficiency
modeling
scenario writing
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دوره 16، شماره 32
مجله پژوهشی
اسفند 1404
صفحه 83-99