پژوهش های محیط زیست

پژوهش های محیط زیست

شناسایی پیشران‌‌های ایجادکننده آلودگی هوا براساس آینده‌‌پژوهی در کلان شهر تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دکتری علوم و مهندسی محیط‌زیست، دانشکده شیلات و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی گرگان، ایران.
2 استاد گروه علوم و مهندسی محیط‌زیست، دانشکده شیلات و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی گرگان، ایران.
3 دانشیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.
10.22034/eiap.2026.246806
چکیده
تحقیق حاضر از نوع آینده‌‌پژوهی برای دستیابی به پیشران‌‌های اصلی و کلیدی ایجادکننده آلودگی هوا در شهر تهران است و به شکل اکتشافی- کاربردی انجام شده است. این پژوهش با ترکیب روش‌‌های آینده‌‌پژوهی انجام پذیرفته و در آن از دو روش دلفی فازی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع استفاده شده است. همچنین، کاربست منطق فازی امکان اجماع نظرات و در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت قضاوت خبرگان را فراهم نموده است. در این پژوهش با مشارکت خبرگان، مهمترین پیشران‌‌های ایجادکننده آلودگی هوا شناسایی گردید تا در مدیریت موثر آلودگی هوا استفاده شوند. داده‌‌های مورد نیاز با بررسی ادبیات تحقیق و همچنین رجوع به نظرات خبرگان از طریق مصاحبه و پرسش‌‌نامه جمع‌‌آوری و تجزیه‌وتحلیل شده است. با بررسی ادبیات تحقیق و منابع علمی 88 عامل موثر بر آلودگی هوا فهرست شدند و با استفاده از تکنیک PESTEL طبقه‌‌بندی گردیدند. در مرحله اول با رجوع به نظر خبرگان و با استفاده از روش دلفی فازی تعداد 36 عامل با حد آستانه 9/3 انتخاب شد. در مرحله بعد طی پرسشنامه‌‌ای با رجوع مجدد به خبرگان مقایسه زوجی میان عوامل تاثیرگذار صورت گرفت. با تحلیل ماتریس اثرات متقاطع مهمترین عوامل بررسی و سنجش شدند. نتایج نشان داد که از میان 36 عامل؛ نوآوری در مدیریت شهری، مسئولان پشتیبان محیط‌زیست، سیاست‌‌های کلی دولت‌‌ها، دخالت دولت‌‌، تعداد وسایل نقلیه، تحقیق و توسعه، قیمت حامل‌‌های انرژی، نظارت بر تولید آلاینده‌‌ها، کیفیت صنایع، رشد جمعیت، تاثیر الگوی مصرف و سرمایه‌‌گذاری در انرژی پاک به‌عنوان مهمترین پیشران‌‌های ایجادکننده آلودگی هوا در شهر تهران هستند. برای مدیریت موثر آلودگی هوا در شهر تهران، در گام اول باید به 12 پیشران یاد شده در بالا توجه نمود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Identifying Key Drivers of Air Pollution Based on Foresight Approach in Tehran Metropolis

نویسندگان English

Seyyed Ali Taghizadeh Diva 1
Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny 2
Hamid Reza Fallah Lajimi 3
1 Ph.D in Environmental Science and Engineering, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Golestan, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Golestan, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
چکیده English

The current research is a Foresight study to find the main and key drivers of air pollution in Tehran, and it was done in an exploratory-applied way. In this research, with the participation of experts, the most critical drivers of air pollution were identified to be used in the effective management of air pollution. The required data has been collected and analyzed by reviewing previous research and referring to experts' opinions through interviews and questionnaires. After the literature review, 88 factors affecting air pollution were listed and classified using the PESTEL technique. In the first stage, 36 factors with a cut-off of 3.9 were selected by referring to the opinion of experts and using the fuzzy Delphi method. In the next step, through a questionnaire, a pairwise comparison between the influential factors was made by referring again to the experts. The most critical factors were investigated and measured by analyzing the mutual effects matrix. The results showed that among 36 factors, Innovation in urban management, Responsible for supporting the environment, Importance of general government policies, government intervention, the number of vehicles, research and development, Price of energy carriers, Monitoring production of pollutants, Quality of industries, Population growth, Impact of consumption norms, and Investment in clean energy are the most important drivers of air pollution in Tehran. In order to have more effective management of air pollution in Tehran, the first step is to pay attention to the 12 mentioned drivers.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

foresight
air pollution
fuzzy Delphi
cross-effects analysis
Micmac
Abbasmofrad, A., Hamzeh, F., Moradi, O. & Bahari, N. (2021). Investigating the Relationship between Air Pollution and Security with the Mediating Role of Nanotechnology in the Metropolis of Tehran. Environment and Interdisciplinary Development, 6(74), 48-59. doi: 10.22034/envj.2022.314515.1158 (in Persian)
Amer, M. Tugrul U.D. & Antonie J. (2013). A review of scenario planning.Futures (46), 23–40.
Azar, A., & Faraji, H. (2016). [Elm-e modiriyat-e fazi / Fuzzy management science]. Tehran: Mehraban Publishing. (in Persian)
Bayat, R., Hassanvand, M. S. & Daroudi, R. (2020). Economic analysis of the cost of air pollution deaths in Tehran. Urban Economics and Planning, 1(3), 188-197. doi: 10.22034/UE.2020.09.03.06 (in Persian)
Behroozi Lak, G. & Jalilvand, M. R. (2015). The Evolutions of the Transdisciplinary of Futures Studies: Case Study of America. Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities, 7(1), 57-94. doi: 10.7508/isih. 2015.25. 003 (in Persian)
Borumand Kakhki, A. & Zahedi Motlagh, H. (2018). Survival level for urban naked body; dress or tie?. Strategic Studies of public policy, 8(27), 329- 345. ( in Persian)
Dashti, M., Shahbazi, M., Azar, A., Maleki, M.H. (2020). “Life cycle of the Tehran air pollution control project: an stakeholder analysis approach.” Modiriat-e- farda, vol. 19, no. 64, pp. 23-38. SID. https:// sid.ir/paper/378842/fa (in Persian)
Fateh Rad, M., Jalilvand, M.R., Mowlaei, M. M., Samiie, S., & Nasrolahi Vasati, L. (2014). Methodological Coordinates of Transdisciplinary Futures Studies as An Integrated Meta-Paradigm. Interdisciplinary Studies in The Humanities (Iranian Journal of Cultural Research), 6(1 (21)), 135-161. Sid. Https:// Sid.Ir/Paper/152438/En (in Persian)
Feng, L. & Wenjie, L. (2016). “Legislation, Plans and Policies for Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in China: Achievements, Challenges and Improvements", Journal of Cleaner Production, 112.
Godet, M. (1994). From anticipation to action, a handbook of strategic prospective. UNESCO publishing.
Godet, M., Durance, P., & Gerber, A. (2008). Strategic foresight. LIPSOR Working Paper. http://www. laprospective. fr/dyn/francais/actualites/SR10vEng.pdf
Godet, M., Monti, R., Meunier, F., & Roubelat, F. (2004). Scenarios and Strategies: A Toolbox for Problem Solving, Cahiers du LIPSOR. Paris: Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective and Strategy.
Habibi, A., Sarafrazi, A., & Firouzi Jahantigh, F. (2015). Fuzzy Delphi Technique for Forecasting and Screening Items Asian Journal Of Research In Business Economics and Management. Vol. 5, No .2, pp.130-143.
Hadinejad, F., Minaee, H., & Abbasi, M. (2020). Combining Fuzzy Delphi Method and Cross-Impact Analysis to Determine the Main Predictors of Military Threats Against The Islamic Republic Of Iran. Strategic Studies of Public Policy (Strategic Studies of Globalization Journal), 10(35), 156-178. Sid. https://sid.ir/paper/405082/en (in Persian)
Health Effects Institute. (2019). State Of Global Air 2019.
Health Effects Institute. (2019). State of Global Air 2019. https://www.stateofglobalair.org/sites/default/ files/soga_2019_fact_sheet.pdf
Heger, M., & Sarraf, M. (2018). Air Pollution in Tehran: Health Costs, Sources, and Policies.
Heger, M., & Sarraf, M. (2018). “Air Pollution in Tehran: Health Costs, Sources, and Policies".
Hemati, A., & Hajiani, E. (2014). A review of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) methods and introducing a correlation-based ISM approach. In National Futures Studies Conference [Conference paper]. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/821846/en (in Persian) 
Hessami, Z. (2015). “Air Pollution – Challenges and Solutions".
Karimi, M., Khosnavaz, S., Shamsipour, A. & Moghbel, M. (2020). Modeling the Effect of Street Orientation on the Air Pollution Dispersion (District Six of Tehran Municipality). Motaleate Shahri, 9(34), 77-90. doi: 10.34785/J011.2021.336 (in Persian)
Khorasani, M. & Heidari, G. (2020). Strategic Management of Shahriar Recreational Tourism Development Based on PESTEL Model. urban tourism, 6(4), 73-94. doi: 10.22059/jut.2020.287102.698 (in Persian)
Mohamadpourjaberi, M., Ebrahimzadeh, I., Rafieian, M., & Saed Moocheshy, R. (2016). Identification and Analysis of Cross-Impacts of Key Factors and Assessing the Level of Regional Sustainability with a Strategic Foresight Approach (A Case Study of Northern Khorasan Province). Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 6(3), 1-17. (in Persian)
Montazer, Gh. A., & Jafari, N. (2008). [Application of fuzzy Delphi method in designing tax policy in Iran (Persian)]. The Economic Research, 8(1), 91-114. https://ecor.modares. ac.ir/article-18-2470-fa.html
Mousavi, M. N., Ghaderi, R., Taghilo, A. A. & Kahaki, F. (2018). Scenario Development in Realizability Territorial Spatial Arrangement (Case Study: Khorasan-e-Razavi). Town and Country Planning, 10(1), 65-91. doi: 10.22059/jtcp.2018.247488.669826 (in Persian)
Ocampo, L., Ebisa, J. A., Ombe, J., & Geen Escoto, M. (2018). Sustainable ecotourism indicators with fuzzy Delphi method- A Philippine perspective. Ecological Indicators, 93, 874-88. [DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind. 2018.05.060]
Peyghambarzadeh, S., Alvani, S., Amirkabiri, A. & Rabiee_Mondjin, M. (2021). Introducing a Native Model to Ensure the Implementation of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Policies in Iran; Study Case: Tehran. Majlis and Rahbord, 28(105), 69-98. doi: 10.22034/mr.2021.436 (in Persian)
Rashidi, F. (2019). Air pollution tolerant Species in city green area. Journal of Natural Environment, 72(2), 251-261. doi: 10.22059/jne.2018.257832.1521(in Persian)
Sardar, Z. (2010). The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What’s in a name? Futures, 42, 177–184.
Sedighi, E., Salman Mahini, A., Mirkarimi, S. H., Daliri, H. & Fath, B. (2019). Identification and Analysis of Key Drivers of Change in Regional Land Use Planning based on Foresight Approach in Gorgan Township. Town and Country Planning, 11(2), 205-233. doi: 10.22059/jtcp.2019.285863.670010 (in Persian)
Sedighi, E., Salmanmahini, A., Daliri, H., Fath, B. D. & Mirkarimi, S. H. (2022). The Analysis of Scenario Planning in Foresight and Frameworks of Quantitative and Qualitative Methods in Futures Studies. Journal of Strategic Management and Future Studies, 4(2), 1-27. (in Persian)
Shirvani, M., Eivazi, M. & Ghasemi, H. (2017). The interdisciplinary concept of strategic foresight in the trans-disciplinary of futures studies: what is it and why does it matter? Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities, 9(3), 1-24. doi: 10.22631/isih.2017.258 (in Persian)
Soudmandi, A. (2020). Irregularities and Weaknesses of the Clean Air Act Compared to the Prevention of Air Pollution Act. Public Law Researsh, 22(68), 141-170. doi: 10.22054/qjpl.2021.12223 (in Persian)
Stratigea, A. (2013). Participatory policy making in foresight studies at the regional level- a methodological approach. Regional science inquiry journal, 5(1), 145-161.
Zali, N., Zamanipoor, M., & Ahmadi, H. (2018). Analysis Of Key Factors Influencing Air Pollution of Metropolies in Developing Countries By Year 2025 (Case Study: Tehran Metropolis, Iran). Anuario Do Instituto De Geociencias UFRJ. Vol. 41, 3/2018. pp.548-559.
Zebardast, E., & riazi, H. (2015). Built Environment Features and its Impact on Air Pollution (Case Study: Surrounding Areas of Fourteen Air Quality Monitoring Stations in Tehran). Journal of Fine Arts: Architecture & Urban Planning, 20(1), 55-66. doi: 10.22059/jfaup.2015.56371 (in Persian)