Protected areas play a crucial role in biodiversity conservation, yet they often fail to completely prevent poaching. The underlying reasons include limitations in law enforcement, easy access for hunters, and ecological pressures. This study aimed to estimate and map the temporal trend of detected herbivore poaching events in Golestan National Park during 2014–2025 and to assess the influence of environmental and management factors on these events.To achieve this, a dynamic hierarchical Dail–Madsen model within a Bayesian framework and using a negative binomial distribution was employed to estimate the main parameters including event abundance, population recruitment, survival, and detection probability.The results indicated that the total number of recorded poaching events declined from an average of 98 cases in 2014 to 34 cases in 2025. Population recruitment was negatively affected by elevation, while survival remained relatively stable. The detection probability was very low—around 1.3%, suggesting that only a small fraction of events are actually recorded.The number of park rangers, especially the recent increase in local community volunteers, had a significant positive effect on detection rates. These findings imply that the reduction in detected events reflects a combination of declining poaching activity, ecological changes, and improved effectiveness of conservation actions, highlighting the importance of adaptive management and community participation in wildlife protection.