پژوهش های محیط زیست

پژوهش های محیط زیست

کاربرد مدل سیستم دینامیک در ایران در راستای ارزیابی سیاست‌‌های مدیریت پسماند غذایی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران.
10.22034/eiap.2026.256871
چکیده
برای تامین غذای کافی و جبران‌‌ کمبودها راهکارهای مختلفی وجود دارد ولی در شرایط حال حاضر اجرا و اتکا به بسیاری از این برنامه‌‌ها با تردید جدی مواجه است. از این‌رو به نظر می‌‌رسد کارآمدترین ابزار پیش‌‌ روی تحقق امنیت غذایی در جوامع بشری کنترل هدر رفت موادغذایی ‌‌باشد. بنابراین در مطالعه حاضر تلاش شد با استفاده از مدل سیستم دینامیک و با در نظر گرفتن روابط متقابل و بازخوردهای موجود در سیستم تولید و مصرف غذا در ایران، اثرات سیاست‌‌های کنترل پسماند غذایی مورد ارزیابی قرار گیرد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد در شرایط پایه، هم‌زمان با رشد جمعیت و تقاضای موادغذایی، مصرف انرژی در سیستم غذا افزایش می‌‌یابد. همچنین تولید پسماند غذایی و در نتیجه مخارج دفن پسماند نیز در طول دوره شبیه‌سازی روند افزایشی دارد. بنابراین سیاست‌‌های مدیریت پسماند در کشور از طریق سناریوهای کنترل سرانه تولید پسماند، تفکیک زباله از مبدا و بهبود تکنولوژی بازیافت مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد اعمال سناریو سوم در طی سال‌‌های 2024-2040 بیشترین اثربخشی را در مدیریت پسماند موادغذایی داشته است. به‌طور میانگین میزان زباله‌‌‌‌های تولید شده کاهش 71/82 درصد را به دنبال خواهد شد. از سویی دیگر این کاهش همراه با افزایش راندمان مصرف انرژی همراه بوده است. به‌طوری‌‌که حجم مصرفی انرژی به‌طور میانگین به میزان قابل توجه 05/28 درصد کاهش یافته است. این کاهش نشان‌‌دهنده اصلاح الگوی مصرف در سال‌‌های آتی می‌‌باشد. علاوه بر این تحت این سناریو حجم بازیافت در ابتدای دوره معادل 44/98 میلیون تن و در انتهای دوره 72/28 میلیون تن پیش‌بینی شده است. لذا با توجه به اثربخشی این سیاست‌‌ها بخش دولتی و خصوصی می‌‌توانند از طریق ایجاد زمینه‌‌هایی برای آموزش، تشویق و بهبود تکنولوژی تاثیر چشمگیری در مدیریت پسماند موادغذایی و حفظ منابع تجدیدناپذیر داشته باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Application of Dynamic System Model in Evaluation of Food Waste Management Policies in Iran

نویسندگان English

Seyyed Mansour Jafari 1
Seyyed Nemat Mousavi 2
1 PhD student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Marodasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marodasht, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran.
چکیده English

There are various solutions for providing enough food and compensating the shortages, but in the current situation, the implementation and reliance on many of these programs faces serious doubts. Therefore, it seems that the most effective tool for the realization of food security in human societies is the control of food waste. Therefore, in the present study, an attempt was made to evaluate the effects of food waste control policies by using the dynamic system model and considering the mutual relationships and feedbacks in the food production and consumption system in Iran. The results of the study showed that in basic conditions, energy consumption in the food system increases simultaneously with population growth and food demand. Also, the production of food waste and, as a result, the cost of waste disposal also increases during the simulation period. Therefore, waste management policies in the country were examined through the scenarios of per capita control of waste production, waste separation from the source and improvement of recycling technology. The results showed that the application of the third scenario during the years 2024- 2040 had the most effect in food waste management. On average, the amount of produced waste will decrease by 71/82% On the other hand, this reduction has been accompanied by an increase in energy consumption efficiency. So that the volume of energy consumption has decreased to a significant amount of 28/05% on average. This decrease indicates the improvement of the consumption pattern in the coming years. In addition, under this scenario, the amount of recycling at the beginning is 98/44 million tons and at the end of the period, 28/72 million is predicted. Therefore, according to the effectiveness of these policies, the public and private sectors can have a significant impact on food waste management and conservation of non-renewable resources by creating fields for training, encouraging and improving technology.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Dynamic system
Food waste control
Recycling
Energy management
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