تحلیل سیستم‌‌های سینوپتیک و بررسی روند تغییرات گرد و غبار (مطالعه موردی: اردستان)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تهران

2 پژوهشکده حفاظت آب و خاک

چکیده

طوفان‌های گرد و غبار و بادهای شدید، فرآیندی طبیعی است که در سراسر مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک دنیا رخ می‌‌دهد. در این تحقیق تغییرات تعداد وقوع گرد‌‌و‌‌غبار در ماه، فصل و سال‌‌های مورد مطالعه (2013- 2000) برای ایستگاه سینوپتیک اردستان و ‌‌ارتباط آن با خشکسالی (محاسبه خشکسالی با استفاده از شاخص SPI) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. استخراج کدهای مربوط به پدیده گرد و غبار(06 و 07) و تحلیل آماری داده‌‌های مرتبط با این پدیده با استفاده از نرم‌افزار متلب انجام گرفت و به منظور بررسی روند در سری‌‌های زمانی ماهانه و سالانه آماره‌‌های آزمون ناپارامتری محاسبه و سپس معنی‌داری این آماره‌ها در سطوح 95% و 99% مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد ماه می‌و فصل بهار بیشترین تعداد وقوع گرد‌‌و‌‌غبار را نسبت به ماه‌ها و فصل‌‌های دیگر سال و همچنین سال‌‌های 2013 و 2001 به ترتیب بیشترین و کمترین تعداد وقوع گرد و غبار در سطح ایستگاه را دارا بودند. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که وقوع گرد‌‌و‌‌غبار با خشکسالی ارتباطی مستقیم وجود دارد و در سال‌‌هایی که شدت خشکسالی زیاد بوده بر تعداد وقوع گرد‌‌و‌‌غبار نیز افزوده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که در روش من-کندال از مجموع 13 سری داده، سری داده‌های سالانه، و در روش سن استیمیتوری سری داده ماه آگوست دارای روند افزایشی در سطح معنی‌داری 1% بودند و در روش سن استیمیتور سری داده‌‌ای ماه‌های آوریل و ژوئن دارای روند صعودی در سطح اطمینان 5% می‌‌باشند نتایج حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل فضایی داده‌‌های بادسنجی به کمک نرم‌افزار WRplot نشان داد که جهت بادهای غالب، جنوبی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Synoptic Systems and Study the Change Trend in Dust (Case Study: Ardestan)

نویسندگان [English]

  • gholamreza zehtabian 1
  • mehdi jafari 1
  • hassan ahamadi 1
  • Tayebeh Mesbahzadeh 1
  • ali akbar noroozi 2
1 university of tehran
2 Institute of Soil and Water Conservation
چکیده [English]

 
Dust storms and intensive winds are natural events which occur all around the world in arid and semi-arid areas. In the present study, changes in dust events during studied months, seasons and years (2000-2013) for Ardestan synoptic station and their relationship with drought (drought calculation using SPI index) were evaluated.. For this purpose statistics of selected station utilized in 14-years period (2000-2013). Codes extraction related to dust event (06 and 07) and data analysis conducted using MATLAB software and in order to study the changes trend in monthly and annual time series, non-parametric test statistics were calculated and then their significance was evaluated at 95 and 99 percent levels. Results showed that May and spring had highest dust events number compared to other months and seasons. Also, results showed that there was direct relationship between dust event and drought and years having intensive drought resulted to more duct events. Results indicated that in Mann-Kendall procedure, of total 13 data series, annual data series and in San-Estimator method, August had positive significant trend at 1% probability level and in Sen-Estimator method, data series in April and June months had increasing trend at 5% confidence level. Results of spatial analysis of anemometer data using WRplot showed that direction of dominant winds are toward south.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Ardestan
  • Drought
  • Dust
  • Mann-Kendall
  • Sen-Estimator
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