پژوهش های محیط زیست

پژوهش های محیط زیست

پیش‌‌بینی اثر رشد شهری بر خدمات فرهنگی اکوسیستم در استان گلستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دکتری ارزیابی و آمایش سرزمین، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان ایران
2 دانشیار گروه محیط‌‌زیست، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌‌ طبیعی گرگان، ایران
3 استاد گروه محیط‌‌زیست، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌‌ طبیعی گرگان، ایران
10.22034/eiap.2025.229954
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش پیش‌‌بینی اثر رشد شهری بر خدمات فرهنگی و شناسایی سناریوی ترجیحی برای حفاظت از این خدمات در استان گلستان است. برای این منظور، نخست نقشه خدمات فرهنگی با روش تصمیم گیری چند معیاره تولید شد. سپس، رشد شهری منطقه مورد مطالعه از طریق مدل SLEUTH تا سال 2035 تحت سناریوهای تاریخی (اول)، فشرده (دوم) و محیط‌‌زیستی با هدف حفظ خدمات فرهنگی (سوم) پیش‌‌بینی شد. ارزیابی خدمات فرهنگی نشان داد که آن‌‌ها بیشتر در قسمت مرکزی استان قرار دارند. طبق نتایج مدل، وسعت کل رشد شهری در سناریوی اول 21197 هکتار است. با تغییر ضرایب مدل، رشد شهری در سناریوی دوم و سوم به 21175 و 19691هکتار کاهش پیدا کرد. وسعت رشد شهری که در پهنه‌‌های خدمات فرهنگی رخ داد تحت سناریوی های اول، دوم و سوم به ترتیب 1387، 1425 و 916 هکتار بود. به این ترتیب، سناریوی سوم در مقایسه با دو سناریوی دیگر رشد کلی شهر را به میزان 1484 و 1506 هکتار کاهش داد. تحت سناریوی سوم وسعت رشد شهری که در پهنه‌‌های خدمات فرهنگی رخ داد 931 و 1161 هکتار کمتر از سناریوهای اول و دوم بود. علاوه‌‌براین، یافته‌‌ها نشان داد که رشد شهری بیشترین اثر را بر خدمات زیبایی‌‌شناسی دارد. کمترین و بیشترین رشد شهری در پهنه‌‌های زیبایی‌‌شناختی به ترتیب تحت سناریوهای سوم (590 هکتار) و دوم (618 هکتار) اتفاق افتاد. نتایج این پژوهش حاکی از آن است که تلفیق روش ارزیابی چند معیاره و مدل SLEUTH می‌‌تواند تصمیم‌‌گیران و برنامه‌‌ریزان را از اثر رشد شهری بر خدمات اکوسیستم آگاه سازد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Projection of Urban Growth Impact on Cultural Ecosystem Services in Golestan Province

نویسندگان English

Maryam Kabiri Hendi 1
Hamed Mirkarimi 2
Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny 3
1 PhD of environmental sciences, Dept. of Environmental Sci.- Gorgan Univ. of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Iran
2 Associate Prof., Dept. of Environmental Sci.- Gorgan Univ. of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Iran
3 Professor. Dept. of Environmental Sci.- Gorgan Univ. of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Iran
چکیده English

This study aims to project the impact of urban growth on cultural services and identify the preferred scenario that could protect these services in Golestan Province. For this purpose, at first, the cultural services map produced by spatial multi-criteria evaluation. Then, the urban growth of the study area projected up to the year 2035 through the SLEUTH model under historical (1st), compact (2nd) and environmental providing cultural services conservation (3rd) scenarios. Cultural services evaluation showed that the services were mostly located in the central part of the province. According to the model, the total urban growth extent in the first scenario is 21197 ha. By changing the model coefficients, the growth extent in the second and third scenarios decreased to 21175 and 19691 ha. Urban extent, which occurred in cultural services zones, was 1387, 1425 and 917 ha under the first, second, and third scenario. Thus, the third scenario has decreased the total urban extent by 1488 and 1506 ha, compared to the first and second scenarios. Under the third scenario urban growth extent in cultural services zones, was 931 and 1161 ha less than those resulted by the first and second scenarios. Findings showed that urban growth had the most negative impact on aesthetics service. The largest and smallest urban growth in aesthetic zones happened under the third scenario (480 ha) and the second scenario (618 ha), respectively. Results of this study denote that a combination of the SLEUTH model and multi-criteria evaluation can inform decision-makers and planners of urban growth impacts on ecosystem services.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Cultural ecosystem services
Multi-criteria evaluation
Urban growth
SLEUTH model
Scenario
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