کاربرد LCM درتحلیل وضع موجود و پیش‌بینی تغییرات پوشش و کاربری اراضی در حوضه آبریز سد لتیان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکترای آمایش سرزمین، گروه علوم محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط‌زیست و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

2 استاد گروه مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط‌زیست و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران ایران

3 استاد گروه مهندسی طراحی محیط‌زیست، پردیس فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار گروه مهندسی طراحی محیط‌زیست، پردیس فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

5 استاد گروه ریاضی، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

10.22034/eiap.2024.191703

چکیده

تغییرات سریع در پوشش و کاربری اراضی (LULC) سبب ایجاد اختلال در پویایی محیط‌زیست و تخریب سرزمین می‌گردد. مدل‌سازی تغییرات، بر اساس رویکرد نقشه‌های سری زمانی پوشش و کاربری اراضی، نقش مهمی در مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌‌ای محیط‌زیستی دارد. هدف اصلی این پژوهش، بررسی روند تغییرات کاربری و پوشش اراضی در حوضه آبریز سد لتیان با استفاده از مدل‌سازی است تا با تحلیل وضعیت کنونی کاربری‌ها در منطقه و پیش‌بینی سناریوهای آتی برای سال‌‌های 2027 و 2037، بتوان از تغییرات ناخواسته جلوگیری کرد. مهم‌ترین فرضیه‌ تحقیق پیش رو این است که، منطقه با کاهش نواحی پوشش گیاهی و افزایش کاربری‌های انسان‌ساخت مواجه خواهد شد. تحلیل مکانی/ زمانی تغییرات پوشش و کاربری اراضی، برای دوره‌ 30 ساله مربوط به سال‌های 2007، 1998، 1987 و 2017 با استفاده از ماهواره‌ی لندست و سنجنده‌های OLI, ETM+,TM انجام شد. طبقات کاربری اراضی در این مطالعات به چهار طبقه‌ نواحی انسان‌ساخت، نواحی دارای پوشش گیاهی، اراضی بدون پوشش و منابع آبی تقسیم شدند. مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی، با استفاده از ماژول مدل‌سازی تغییرات اراضی) (LCMبر اساس شبکه‌ عصبی مصنوعی (ANN) و پرسپترون چند لایه (MLP) در نرم افزار ترست (TerrSet) انجام شد. نرخ دقت کلی مدل‌سازی برای سال‌‌های (1987، 1998، 2007 و 2017) به ترتیب برابر با 66/80، 21/83، 32/84 و 12/85 درصد و ضریب کاپا برای همان سال‌ها به ترتیب 8/0، 82/0، 84/0 و 86/0 محاسبه شدند. نتایج آشکارسازی تغییرات دوره‌ اول ( 1998-1987)، دوره‌ دوم (2007-1998) و دوره‌ سوم (2017- 2007) نشان می‌دهد که طی این سه دوره‌ زمانی، مساحت باغ‌ها و پوشش گیاهی و اراضی بدون پوشش، کاهش و وسعت نواحی انسان‌ساخت افزایش داشته است. همچنین، طبق نتایج حاصل از مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی تغییرات، این روند طی سال‌های 2027 و 2037 نیز ادامه خواهد داشت. نتایج این تحقیق، می تواند از ادامه‌ روند تخریب پوشش‌گیاهی و خطرات ناشی از گسیختگی سیمای‌سرزمین جلوگیری نموده و کمکی باشد به مدیران و برنامه‌ریزان تا تصمیمات آگاهانه‌تری جهت برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای محیط‌زیستی و حفظ منابع طبیعی ارزشمند منطقه اتخاذ نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Current and Future Prediction of Land Use /Land Cover Change Using (LCM) in Latian Dam Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Banafsheh Shafie 1
  • Amirhossein Javid 2
  • Homa Irani Behbahani 3
  • Hassan Darabi 4
  • Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi 5
1 Ph.D. in Land Use Planning, Department of Environmental sciences, Faculty of Environment & Natural Resources, (IAU) Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Environment & Natural Resources, (IAU) Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Environmental Design, Campus of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Design, Campus of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
5 Professor, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Basic Sciences, (IAU) Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Accelerated changes in land use/land cover (LULC) cause changes in environmental dynamics and land degradation. The monitoring and modeling of changes, based on a time-series LULC approach, is fundamental for planning and managing regional environments. The current study analyzed the LULC changes, as well as estimate future scenarios for 2027 and 2037. To achieve accuracy, in predicting LULC changes, the land change modeler (LCM) was used for the Latian Dam Watershed. The LULC time-series technique was specified utilizing four atmospherically-endorsed surface reflectance Landsat images for the years t1 (1987), t2 (1998), t3 (2007) and t4 (2017), to authenticate the LULC predictions to obtain estimates for t5 (2027) and t6 (2037). The LULC classes identified in the watershed were (a) built-areas, (b) vegetated areas, (c) bare lands and (d) water bodies. The dynamic modeling of the LULC was based on a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and artificial neural network (ANN) in LCM. The overal accuracy rate equivalent 80.66, 83.21, 84.32 and 85.12for the years t1 (1987), t2 (1998), t3 (2007) and t4 (2017), and Kappa Index equating to 0.80, 0.82, 0.84 and 0.86 respectively. The results of LULC change analysis showed an increase in the build-up areas; and a decrease in bare lands and vegetated areas within the duration of the study period. The results of this research could help regional planners and managers in the formulation of public policies designed to conserve environmental resources in the Latian Dam Watershed and consequently, minimize the risks of the fragmentation of orchards, vegetated areas and degradation of the valuable resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Modeling
  • Prediction
  • LULC change؛ LCM
  • Latian dam watershed

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پژوهش های محیط زیست
دوره 14، شماره 28
مجله پژوهشی
اسفند 1402
صفحه 55-74

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